Demuren: The first term achievments.

 

 

Stepping Up On The Change Culture In Nigeria …As Demuren Returns..

 published 11th April 2012 By Roland Ohaeri 
 (see my comment at the end of write-up.-- Pam,D,R.)

 

Whereas the achievements of the aviation industry in Nigeria were a collective toiling and moiling of the Ministry of Aviation, aviation parastatals, airlines as well as the private sector support groups, the coordinating role of Dr. Harold Demuren as a core aviation professional and effective leader in Nigeria's and indeed Africa's aviation industry would stand out in the history of civil aviation in Nigeria and Africa - Anonymous

From The Cold

In the dark days of aviation un-safety in Nigeria when aircraft dropped from the skies, Nigeria could only be compared to ill-regulated air transport environments under the pall of civil and political strife in parts of Africa.

The fatalities and frequencies of occurrence of air accidents soared to a frightening crescendo in the 2005/2006 period, such that the industry was forced out of its phlegmatic apathy, so to say, to seek a definite stop to the horrific death-ride. While the then aviation authorities were sizing up the challenge of the fast-plummeting standards among operators, many agreed that an external force could be better positioned to effect the needed change. Dr. Harold Olusegun Demuren, who was on retirement from the government sector of the aviation industry, and at the time overseeing his private airline, Afrijet Airlines, was picked to lead the efforts to re-launch the industry on a new path of safety and overall growth and development. He had served in the former Federal Civil Aviation Authority as Director of Safety Services from 1991 till he was retired in August 1995. He is an Aeronautical Engineer trained in the former Soviet Union and in the US.

Civil Aviation Reforms

Perhaps, the pain from the tragic losses of about 350 fatalities in 2005/2006, the devaluation of Nigeria's esteem in the comity of global civil aviation, and hence urgent need to repair the battered air transport industry in Nigeria were the impelling forces that drove radical improvements that the industry continued to experience from the point Dr. Demuren came in as the DG CAA in December 2005.

Dr. Demuren featured prominently and worked fervently towards the ultimate cleansing of the aviation system in Nigeria. He was at the core of the National Aviation Workshop on Safety, Quality Assurance & Reforms in 2006 organized by the Aviation & Allied Business Journal on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Aviation. The Workshop elicited far-reaching recommendations from key partners in Nigeria's aviation industry under the direct guidance and support of policy and security experts from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and International Air Transport Association (IATA) who deemed it crucial to transform civil aviation policy, safety standards and practice generally in Nigeria at the time. Part of the recommendations of the milestone Workshop was reflected in the widely acclaimed Nigerian Civil Aviation Act 2006, which stands today as a paradigm for several Africa States that need to improve on their civil aviation regulation. The 2006 Act brought in sweeping changes and re-direction to civil aviation in Nigeria, thus handing Nigeria a fresh basis for a robust new beginning, replacing the 1964 Civil Aviation Act which, at best, subdued aviation development in Nigeria in the few decades before 2006. Currently, strong opinions are that useful recommendations contained in the 2006 Civil Aviation Workshop should be harmonized with others from especially the Air Marshal Paul Dike-led aviation committee which sat within the same period, among others, to produce a functional and updated Civil Aviation Policy document to drive aviation development in Nigeria. Working with industry partners also, Dr. Demuren pushed for the achievement of the autonomy of the NCAA, whereby the CAA has ultimate say on the technical regulation of the aviation industry - devoid of political interference that has crippled aviation development in parts of Africa. Perhaps, the autonomy empowered Dr. Demuren to effect change in the industry, and freed him from the nauseating excesses of political intrusion that had been a major hindrance to aviation development in Nigeria. The autonomy of the NCAA is in compliance with ICAO stipulations, and is a good example for African States yet to toe that line.

Cape Town Convention

Dr. Demuren helped to achieve the domestication of the Cape Town Convention in Nigeria. The Convention is an international instrument endorsed by ICAO allowing States that ratify and domesticate the Convention to have empowered their airlines to have easier access to modern aircraft. In other words, airlines from such States that ratify and domesticate the Cape Town Convention can acquire more economically and ecologically efficient aircraft to enhance their operations and get access to juicy markets with inexorable regulatory requirements especially in Europe and the US. All over Africa today, Dr. Demuren is seen as a hero of sort having developed the Nigerian aviation industry into a lead paradigm for several other African States needing guideposts for the development of their local aviation industry. Several States in Africa consult the Demuren-led NCAA to learn the secrets of achieving eligibility to the benefits of the Cape Town Convention, civil aviation reforms, security enhancement, and CAA autonomy, among other achievements of the NCAA.

Zero-Accident

Dr. Demuren has proved that with CAA autonomy comes improved safety. The zero-accident record sustained for scheduled commercial passenger aircraft in Nigeria since 2006 is the most remarkable outcome of Dr. Demuren's stewardship in the industry which is the key measuring tool for public assessment of the state of health of the air transport industry. Public confidence shot up as the international aviation community restated high esteem for the Nigerian aviation industry and its regulators. ICAO and IATA particularly testified to the "tremendous improvement" in the safety standard in Nigeria's aviation industry.

In Marakkech recently at the AFRAA AGA, IATA DG, Mr. Tony Tyler, expressly stated: "The Nigerian example shows what can be achieved. In 2005 it had the worst safety record on the continent with four of the eight hull losses in that year. "Dr. Demuren brought innovation and proved that world-class safety is possible in Africa. There was one further hull loss in 2006. And there have been no hull losses in Nigeria since 2007. Dr. Demuren completes his tenure as Nigeria's DGCA next February and he is owed a great debt of gratitude by IATA and all of our members for his tireless work. His work should be an inspiration."

Optionally Compulsory IOSA Certification

Strongly highlighted at the 2006 Civil Aviation Workshop, and further championed by Dr. Demuren, the IATA Operations Safety Audit (IOSA) for airlines is a basic requirement for Nigerian airlines. The CAA makes the IOSA optionally compulsory for Nigerian airlines, and has continued to encourage them to undergo the audit. Thus far, a number of airlines including Overland Airways, Arik Air, Air Nigeria, among others, have keyed into the culture of IOSA, while some airlines have already got re-certification on the IOSA, which is one of the cornerstones of high safety standards among Nigerian and African airlines today. In Africa, IATA says IOSA airlines achieved an accident rate close to global average several times lower than the general African accident rate in 2011.

In 2006 also, Dr. Demuren, leading the NCAA, mandated all operators in the aviation industry in Nigeria to adopt safety management systems (SMS) which is a form of guidepost for safety. The Just Culture and Voluntary Reporting system is also part of the SMS system whereby operators are encouraged to monitor the precursors of accidents under a non-punitive, corrective-preventive system.

IASA Category 1 Certification

At the cusp of the robust safety record achieved by Nigeria's aviation industry was the achievement of the coveted Category 1 safety certification awarded by the US Federal Aviation Administration (US FAA) to Nigeria in 2010. The US Embassy in Abuja said in 2010 of the certification: "Nigeria has achieved a Category 1 air safety rating from the U.S. Government under the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) International Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA) program. This means that Nigeria complies with international air safety standards set by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the United Nations' technical agency for aviation that establishes international standards and recommended practices for aircraft operations and maintenance." Former U.S. Ambassador, Dr. Robin R. Sanders, officially notified and formally congratulated Dr. Demuren at a brief ceremony on the certification in Abuja.

Her words: "This achievement is an important milestone for Nigeria and US-Nigeria bilateral relations. It is only fitting that this coveted Category 1 rating comes at the dawn of the nation's year of Golden Jubilee. The US Mission, NCAA, and FAA have worked together as a team in the true spirit of bilateral partnership over the last two years to achieve this goal. Hats off to everyone for a job well-done and a rating well-deserved."

According to the US Embassy, Nigeria is one of just six African countries, including Cape Verde, Egypt, Ethiopia, Morocco and South Africa, with an IASA Category 1 rating." In this light, Ghana's Deputy Minister of Transport, Hon. Dzifa Attivor, said last year in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, that Ghana is intensifying efforts to re-establish its EASA Category 1 status. Results of the Category Certification 1 include the empowerment of Nigerian airlines to fly direct to the US with Nigerian-registered aircraft as Arik Air is currently doing.

Aviation Security

When the failed bombing of December 25, 2009 occurred, the urgent need to re-arrange the security apparatus in Nigeria came to the fore. Driven by Dr. Demuren with the support of the Aviation Ministry, Nigeria became one of the first countries globally to adopt 3D security technology and 100 percent pat-down at the airports in line with the new and emerging threats to aviation security. Following the conference of African Aviation Ministers in Abuja at the instance of ICAO in 2010 which produced Africa's Aviation Security Roadmap, Dr. Demuren in 2011 presided over the second summit on aviation security in Dakar, Senegal. Working together with the US Transport Security Board, the NCAA under Dr. Demuren and Nigeria's Ministry of Aviation, has turned the searchlight on the internal sides of aviation organizations, mainly airports and airlines, to flush out what is now known as aviation insider threats. Sustaining high level of security is an on-going task as are other aspects of air transport, which must become a culture among all operators in the industry.

Manpower Development

Dr. Demuren has been able to achieve greater professionalism and infectious enthusiasm among public and private industry partners. Training, motivation and culture building is more pronounced in the aviation industry in Nigeria for fear of clampdown from the NCAA, on the one hand, and also for fear of a relapse into the pre-2006 state, on the other.

The CAA set a safety-enhancing hurdle of recertification for all existing and upcoming airlines in Nigeria, and has set out also to certificate all airports in the country. This may be the final ground-setting for the build-up of the superstructures and steady development in the aviation industry in Nigeria.

Accolades From ICAO

Perhaps, on the strength of the remarkably upped safety and other standards in Nigeria, in addition to the country's soaring international profile in aviation circles, ICAO picked Dr. Demuren to be the President of the ICAO 37th Assembly in Montreal, Canada, the first for any African. By this turn, many say the ovation reached the apogee for Dr. Demuren. But with so much yet undone, Dr. Demuren believes the foundation has only been laid for the build-up of all aspects of the aviation industry in Nigeria, West Africa and Africa generally.

Regional Cooperation & Development

Dr. Demuren has been an ardent advocate of a domestic airline market in West Africa. He says, in the spirit of the Yamoussoukro Decision (YD), which seeks the dismantling of State and regional barriers to African airlines, all States in West Africa should relax their civil aviation laws such that an airline from any West African State can perform domestic operations in any other West African State without inhibition. However, States are only tardily responding, if not unwilling to respond, to this crucial call.

BAGASOO And BAGAIA

Whereas the air transport industry in Africa, toeing the line of ICAO, is prioritizing regional capacity building for safety, security and manpower development, Dr. Demuren, along with key aviation experts in the West African region, took the lead to establish the Banjul Accord Group Safety Oversight Organization (BAGASOO), and the BAG Accident Investigation Agency (BAGAIA), both headquartered in Abuja. This is now a major paradigm which other African regions are charged to emulate.

After A Remarkable Five Years

Nigeria has witnessed well-deserved respite, if not bliss, since the past five years corresponding with the days of intense hardwork by Dr. Demuren and the NCAA, the Ministry of Aviation, parastatals and Nigerian airlines as well as industry support organizations.

What makes the CAA the powerful engine responsible for aviation growth and development is the CAA's position as industry regulator and safeguard of ICAO Standards and Recommended Practices at State levels. The CAA as the enforcer of industry regulation and preserver of industry standards cannot be compromised with the wrong leadership. As the five-year tenure of Dr. Demuren ran out February 22, 2012, the DG CAA has been retained to carry on with the transformation of the aviation industry in Nigeria. Dr. Demuren is already faced with a mighty task of surpassing the achievements of Nigeria's aviation industry in the last five years. That is why the least that would be expected of the new DG CAA would be to improve on the safety and security level, policy standards, and public confidence, besides keeping Nigeria's flag flying very high in global civil aviation community. Above all, since the refrain in the industry in the past 5 years has been 'safety, safety, safety', it is paramount now that attention be focused also on economic regulation to buoy the performance of airlines in this regard, among others. Whether the cup is half-full or half-empty would depend on the fresh drive and delivery of the DG CAA.

However, keen industry observers believe a new phase of development has begun in Nigeria's aviation industry with the end of tenure of DG NCAA December 2005 to February 2012; and the scorecard in the course of his current stewardship would say how well Nigeria has fared from the present pedestal.

(Then comes Dana 0992 which opens a can of worms...Do you think if Demuren had not returned, he might have kept his position of a 'Saint'?)

Safe and sustainable aviation in the Africa and Indian Ocean (AFI) region.

Executive Summary

Aviation is considered a vital tool for economic development in Africa. This becomes more critical considering the level of surface transport development across the continent. It generated around 450,000 jobs and contributed more than $10 billion USD to Africa’s GDP in 2007 (ATAG)1. While air transport plays an important role in itself, its main role is to facilitate economic activity.
Unfortunately, the region has suffered a history of high airline failure rates, poor infrastructure and an accident rate that is 8 times the global average. A major challenge now facing the continent is the lack of sustainable levels of the requisite, skilled workforce at all levels. This is necessary to steer the course of both governance and industry. The global community through various government and non- governmental agencies has proffered a plethora of initiatives and interventions, designed to redress the situation. However, the successes recorded through these efforts have been marginal.

It is time Africa learns from its past mistakes and focuses on achieving safe, sustainable, reliable and efficient air travel. It must be supported by sound infrastructure and concern for the environment. All these criteria must to be strategically laid out in a detailed policy and supported by legal processes that will aid successful implementation. Governments must be transparent, accountable and guided by democratic principles. Transformational leadership should result in social and political stability that will create the suitable environment for regional economic integration. This integration will be easier to achieve if the region aligns its aviation policies and regulations to optimise the workforce available. All member States must pool resources to invest in infrastructure, aircraft acquisitions, fuel purchase- agreements and workforce training. Africa must understand that all infrastructure or equipment procured will need to be entrusted into the hands of a competent and skilled workforce if the industry is to achieve its objectives. Aviation professionals in the region must be proactive and visible. The airlines should consider strategic commercial agreements and mergers to benefit from possible cost synergies. Safety and economic benefits will accrue from having a single African sky, a fly Africa policy and one Multi-lateral Air Service Agreement between Africa and Indian Ocean region and the rest of the world.
Creating human capital takes time; lost time is irretrievable. The region is running out of both time and human capital and the competition is not waiting. 

1 The economic and social benefits of air transport 2008, Air transport action group 

Pam, D.R., (2012) Safe and sustainable aviation in the AFI region iv 

 

Conclusions and recommendations

1. Conclusions

• Economically, the continent has the market (population) and the resources to successfully run a safe and sustainable aviation industry if these are properly harnessed. It has immense natural resources much of which remain untapped except for oil and precious minerals. These two have been attracting interest and conflict due to their demand and value.

• Africa is still politically and socially divided. This is clearly exhibited by the poor implementation of YD, the diplomatic deadlock between Zimbabwe and the EU and the indecisiveness over the NATO intervention in Libya.

• Corruption is widespread with most of the proceeds invested in foreign banks to the detriment if the African economy. Sometimes the scourge is actively encouraged by multinational banks and business corporations.

• Most of Africa still handle both aviation safety information and information that will aid socio-political reformation in a reactive or bureaucratic manner (Reason, 2006). This is evident in the low level of aviation Accident Data Reporting (ADREP) buy-in and anti-corruption reporting. There is low employee and public engagement in both aviation safety and governance.

• A general lack of practical quality management is observed in most airline operations. Most airlines secure ISO 9000 series certificates but do not practice even basic fundamentals such as the Deming cycle. Airlines aim for compliance oblivious that quality assurance will guarantee both compliance and efficiency.

• Internal and external organisations (such as IATA, IFALPA, FAA, EASA, AFRAA, AFCAC and Eurocontrol, etc.) currently working in this region have similar and over lapping aims, objectives and initiatives. They have failed to co-ordinate their activities or recognise that there not enough people to implement their very many strategies.

• The region is facing an acute shortage of a qualified work force. In the words of AFCAC ‘there are endemic problems in recruiting and retaining qualified personnel in sufficient numbers with the necessary expertise to carry out their day to day regulatory and oversight functions.

• The Aviation industry in Africa is too strategic to be completely privatised and left purely to the dictates of market forces at the current stage of its development. The top airlines in Africa, Middle East and China are all government owned.

Recommendations: Governments actions

Political strategies for Synergy

African nations have to give up some level of individuality to succeed as a stronger group.
Failure to attain political synergy will mean these Countries will maintain the status of pawns in the grand game of international politics and economics. “Europe as it is envisaged in 1992 is also a potentially formidable economic superpower, but the reluctance to establish a European monetary system or sacrifice more individual national sovereignty could inhibit the full realization of this potential.”
            -Helmut Schmidt, former German chancellor (1988)
Achieving regional integration will present some tough leadership decisions. It will mean relinquishing some level of individual sovereignty on some issues for the interest of the entire group. However, when the process is successfully completed, the gains outweigh the sacrifices made.

Transformational Leadership

The notion of an African Union is essential and long overdue. The challenge is the emergence of the Leadership required to give it the momentum it must have to achieve relevance.
Leadership is a social process in which a person is able to enlist the aid of others and direct their activities to achieve a collective goal. By observing the global social changes taking place over the past decade, it is obvious that, all forms of leadership and governance that remain hierarchical and systematically authoritarian are doomed to become increasingly ineffective and engender an implosion. Leadership that will succeed in the African Union (AU) is the type that acknowledges the leadership capacity in every other member.

Transparency and accountability in governance

African governments must pass a freedom of information act across the continent to encourage transparency and accountability of public officials. This will increase the prospects for systematic reforms which could counter corruption in the region. Increased press freedom and an independent judiciary will also strengthen the fight against corruption using existing checks and balances.
Constitutional reforms should be carried out to make the leadership truly accountable. Open and frank communication results in a clearly understood, written and enforceable (legislated) document detailing the responsibilities and expectations of the people and their governments. This is close to the ideal situation when the iceberg is clearly above the water.

The perfect substitute for foreign aid

African governments should make a representation to the United Nations to have a mandate passed that compels all Countries to return the assets that have been misappropriated from Africa. These are to be repatriated back to the source country with 90 days of the complaint being made.

Establishment of a free trade Area covering the entire continent

The African Economic Community (AEC) is designed to lead to economic integration. This can only be achieved by an increase in intra-regional trade.
With this in place, Africa should at least be able to produce what it consumes. This will further strengthen regional ties and reduce escalating conflicts. Economic dependency is a strong incentive to seek peaceful resolutions and avoid serious conflicts among members. Currently, African countries trade more with their former colonist than with each other.

Fly Africa Policy

The reasons that compelled the American congress to adopt the fly America Act 1974 was to protect their industry against unfair practices and strong competition from foreign carriers. The USA has always argued that this does not amount to a government subsidy. With the current debt profiles, African economies may not afford to give direct subsidies, so this will have to suffice.
The high volume of government sponsored foreign travel within and outside the continent will improve the operating margins of African carriers and hopefully the support they need to improve both safety and efficiency.

Recommendations: Government and Industry Stakeholder actions

Clearly define African Civil Aviation Commission’s (AFCAC) role

Among all the structures currently in place, AFCAC is in the best position to play the lead role in the alignment of civil aviation policies and the harmonisation of the regions regulations. The role, scope and authority of AFCAC must be strengthened and clearly defined by the group.
Logically it should be empowered to co-ordinate all aviation activities in the AFI region including those of the partner organisations such as IATA and ICAO. It should be the nerve centre for broad based policy and strategy formulation and cannot afford to tolerate a vacuum. However, it is necessary to learn from the problems the EU encountered with National Authorities and the interpretation of harmonised regulations and avoid the pitfalls.

Improve coordination and alignment of safety strategies among partner organisations

The internal and external organisations currently working to address aviation concerns in this region have similar and over lapping aims, objectives and initiatives. There are currently over 54 ongoing aviation related initiatives being implemented across the continent. These has the regulatory staff busy attending monthly seminars and workshops to the detriment of safety and economic oversight functions. There are far too many consultants and not enough people to implement their very many strategies.
Secondly, it will be counter productive if diverging or conflicting strategies are being implemented simultaneously by different interested parties in the region. To illustrate; Thales of France recently completed airspace upgrades for two African Countries.
Nigeria had spent over $86 USD million for a 3 year contract that defaulted to eight years (2003-2011) to procure an inefficient surface radar programme for its 923,000 square kilometre airspace.
Namibia on the other hand, spent less than $14 USD million in just three years (January 2009-December 2011) and has launched a more sophisticated Wide Area Multi-lateration (WAM) surveillance system including ADS-C for its 825,000 square kilometres airspace. Obviously, Namibia made a more sensible and future-proof decision. It is understood that the buyer always has the final decision on choice, however one has to question the quality of the consultation provided by Thales to Nigeria before and during execution of the contract.

Design a ‘one size fits all’ Audit Programme

The multiplicity of similar safety audits such as IOSA and the FAA’s IASA besides the normal ICAO USOAP-CMA, SSP, SMS, audit processes that CAA’s and airlines carryout is counter-productive. A close inspection shows that 80% of the elements of these programmes are identical.
AFCAC should put in place a framework that integrates all the vital elements of these audit programmes into one comprehensive audit process that allows the CAA’s to use their lean resources on other required oversight responsibilities. 

Training and retaining skilled Personnel

Africa needs to invest in robust initial and recurrent training programmes as a mitigating measure against the risks of catastrophic events. With bigger and faster aircraft, the consequences of human failure are more far reaching now than they were a generation ago. The skills acquired 5 years ago now appear outdated in the face of technological innovations. Most times, the human element is trying to catch up with the machine. Investigations reveal that the UK has more ICAO recognised aviation training institutions than all African Countries combined. According to Boeing’s 2011 outlook, Africa will need 14,300 pilots and 19,200 engineers by 2030. That’s is, an additional 715 pilots and 960 maintenance engineers every year.
The migration of African professionals to developed Countries represents a personal decision shaped mainly by an individual’s assessment of where the best career opportunities lie. Governments can help influence this decision by improving living and working conditions. They should also co-operate with member States and offer realistic prospects for secure and rewarding professional careers in Africa.

Active participation by Professionals

The professional aviation bodies like IFALPA, IFATCA, Engineers International (EI), etc., should be more visible and vocal in industry circles.
Aviation professionals and the general citizenry must support civil society organisations throughout the region in becoming active and outspoken concerning governance issues and corruption.

Joint investments in aviation infrastructure

African nations were urged to co-operate with each other on major infrastructure projects. There is strength in working collectively. Infrastructure projects can stimulate the economy and provide employment, while green energy projects can help combat climate change. The African aviation environment is affected by factors all of which must be appropriately managed on a regional scope to effect any significant change.
Historical evidence abounds that the impressive strides made by individual Countries like South Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, Kenya, e.t.c., within the AFI region in achieving global safety and technological standards have been eclipsed by the failures of their proximate neighbours. Aviation infrastructure is capital intensive to produce and maintain because of the high standards of safety required.

Pooling of resources to enhance utilisation of existing structures

Africa needs a comprehensive strategy for working in concert. A strategy that will integrate identifying potential and existing skills among member States.
Then offer encouragement and support by providing large-scale, long-term patronage. The ultimate objective is building and refining of the skill sets within the continent.
The AU could produce a framework that gives member States opportunities to become proficient in certain fields and activities within a 15-20 year period. This comprehensive approach will not be restricted to aviation alone.
For example the entire continent could mandate that from 2015 to 2030 all member states will encourage, procure from and rely on:
 South Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt and Kenya for all aviation training and maintenance requirements.
 Algeria, Nigeria, Libya Ghana and Angola for oil and gas, solid minerals and power generation requirements.
 Namibia, Burundi, Zimbabwe and Tanzania for agricultural expertise, tourism and shipping requirements.

Africa must plan and aim to exploit synergies, gain economies of scale and scope, improving production processes with practice. So that in the long-term, the controlling instruments still remain on the African continent. 
The current initiative of setting up Regional Safety Oversight Organization (RSOO) and sharing the services of qualified aviation safety inspectors under the AFI-CIS is a welcome development.

Full implementation of the Yamoussoukro decision (YD)

It is a major drawback that 10 member nations have not yet signed the YD. However, all signatories of the Abuja treaty of 12th May 1994 are automatically bound to implement the YD. The expeditious implementation of YD is hindered because articles in trade agreements currently existing between African nations and their OECD donors indirectly discourage regional integration. African leaders should realise by now that the only real chance Africa has at sustainable development is regional synergy.

Single Air Service agreement between the AFI region and the rest of the world.

Produce a framework to review and terminate all existing individual Bi-lateral Air Service Agreements (BASA) and aim to establish a single Air service Agreement between Africa and the rest of the world.
The EU has emerged with EASA taking over safety responsibilities from the National Aviation Authorities (NAA).
Plans are being concluded to negotiate future air service agreements with the EU represented as a single unit, thus making the group formidable. Africa should form a united front to negotiate air service agreements. This will provide positive macro-economic effects for the region.

The Future: liberalised Consolidation

African airlines should immediately embark on strategic review of their business models to aid in choice of strategic options.
They should seriously consider strategic mergers and acquisitions to facilitate access to intangible assets such airport slots, new markets and increased corporate versatility.
A lesson from 2 of the major EU carriers that dominate African aviation.
A signal that the era of cross-border mergers has arrived is the case of British Airways (BA) and Iberia; the flag carriers of two European Countries. The two airlines completed their merger on the 21st January 2011 and evolved into the International Airlines consolidated Group (IAG).
The group has recently acquired British Midlands International (BMI) and its priced slots at Heathrow airport from Lufthansa. IAG is still working towards a closer union with American Airlines. 
Lufthansa currently owns 13% of Luxair, 19% of JetBlue, 25% of Jade cargo (China), and 100% of German wings, Eurowings, Swiss International Air Lines, Brussels, Lufthansa cargo, Lufthansa City line, Austrian airlines and Lufthansa Italia. It is expedient to link strategy formulation and implementation into one efficient and seamless process.
In global business, the competitive advantage of nations plays a significant role in defining the competitive advantage of their carriers. As illustrated above, governments play active roles in strategic industries like aviation and nuclear power to further their economic interests. Countries are now willing to make policy adjustments in the interest of macro-economic benefits. Though this interference results in a distortion of the natural balance of market forces, it remains part of global economic realities.
This is Africa’s moment.

Full version can be found at http://www.scribd.com/doc/83135213/Safe-and-sustainable-aviation-in-Africa-Alignment-of-Policies-Regulations-and-Resources.

(for a free soft copy email:  drpam007@gmail.com)

Red October: The real aviation invasion begins

Facing the Competition.....

FASTJET and furious….

Today FastJet said it will lease at least five Airbus A319 in the next six months and up to 15 within a year. Rubicon’s chief executive Ed Winter, who previously worked at British Airways’ budget offshoot Go, said: “The decision to launch with the Airbus A319 enables us to expand rapidly [with] passenger numbers doubling from current levels within six months.”

Fastjet plans to commence commercial flight operations in October 2012.

It is envisaged that Fastjet is the initiation of a $500 milion investment strategy into Africa’s aviation industry which is valued annually at $56 billion (£35.7 billion) but is known for a poor safety record and unreliability. To this end, the European Union (EU) has blacklisted 279 carriers from 21 countries -- and 14 of those countries are African. These blacklisted African  airlines are technically out of the game as far as the European market is concerned, but the European carrier still have full access to the perilous African markets; how quaint?

With a population of 158 million people, Nigeria is the largest country in Africa and accounts for 47 percent of West Africa’s population. It is also the biggest oil exporter in Africa, with the largest natural gas reserves in the continent. With these large reserves of human and natural resources, Nigeria is poised to build a prosperous economy, significantly reduce poverty, and provide health, education and infrastructure services to its population needs. The World bank estimates that Nigeria will overtake south Africa and become Africa’s largest economy by 2018. The revised forecast for Nigeria indicates an average GDP growth of 5.6% for the next 20 years.

Airbus forecasts total passenger traffic in Africa will grow at an average yearly rate

of 5.7% between 2010 and 2030, well above the 4.8 per cent world average growth rate

and expects to deliver more than 1,100 new passenger aircraft, 4% of world deliveries, in the next 20 years to satisfy growing demand. Seven of the top 10 fastest growing global economies are now in Africa with consumer spending for the continent forecast to reach

US$1.6 trillion by 2020.

The McKinsey report of June 2010 forecast that 128 million households in Africa are expected to have discretionary income to spend by 2020, while 50% of Africans are expected to live in cities by the same date with urban jobs bringing rising incomes. The McKinsey report concluded that today the rate of return on foreign investment in Africa is higher than in any other developing region and that early entry into African economies provides opportunities to create markets, establish brands, shape industry structure, influence consumer preferences and establish long-term relationships.

This is a credible investors report designed to exploit the following:

Africa's high traffic growth buliding on economic performance.

African consumer spending on things Africa does not produce and should not be encouraged to produce but rather import from the predominantly European trading partners like aviation travel.

The high return on investments? And I was of the impression that Africa is accused of having very high operating cost as far as aviation is concerned? Could the high operating cost be caused by the fact that:

• African airlines are charged excessively more by European/ American leasing and insurance companies more for the obvious reasons..stifle the competition? Thank goodness for the Cape Town convention of 2005; which unfortunately is not been used effectively by African governments and aviation administrators.

• African airlines are often constrained by rigidly exploitative lease agreements to contract the maintenance of the leased aeroplanes to MRO's domiciled or belonging to the same European or American corporations; leading to capital flight and loss of skills for the MRO's on the continent?

A pertinent question that betrays the euphoria of access to cheaper air travel is what are the medium and long term implications of the entrance of fast jet portend for the West African sub-region?

Will there be any investment is infrastructure or is this just a gold-rush for the huge market the burgeoning middle class here will create?

What is the percentage of the share holding domiciled on the African continent?

Will there be any transfer of skills or is the age old master-servant relationship were capital flight continues as long people are moved from A to B?

Asking these questions is more sarcasm than truth because Europe is in a recession and they're desperately looking for every niche that can be exploited. As a result, we believe it is most likely that:

• The aircraft will be registered and insured in the EU because it'll be cheaper.
• Maintenance will carried out in EU.
• Pilot and engineers training will be carried out in EU.
• About 70% of the 240 pilots, numerous maintenance personnel and top level management will be expatriates from EU.
• 100% of the profits will be repatraited back to the EU because they can need to pay shareholders.

Without mincing words, this was the competition my old post was referring to, the one that sees Africa as a market to be plundered and abandoned because Africans have allowed it to be used as such. This can be stemmed by diligent and proactive scrutiny of all MOU and their impact on the development of the African aviation industry. The first casualties of fastjet will most likely be the sleazy giant of Africa. If Nigeria fails to act very carefully but quickly, it may not be five years before we see the extinction of it's current bickering crowd of mostly sole proprietor-type half baked operators.

Dont say I did'nt warn you.

What the Minister and NCAA must do if the Aviation industry is to survive the next five years

Is the Sun about to set for Nigerian Aviation?

The Nigerian aviation industry is underestimating the nature of the competition it will face from foreign carriers determined to carve a niche in the 4.4% average gdp (gross domestic product) growth estimated for the country in the next 40 years. Already the country presents the second highest rpk (revenue passenger Kilometer) in the continent. Traffic between Africa and the EU has consistently accounted for over 60% of all aviation activity on the African continent. Foreign carriers currently dominate the international traffic arena, this now confines the local industry to the national and regional traffic, but that is also about to change unless both African regulators and the airlines recognise the impending threat. As at April 2012, only Arik services’ any international routes outside Africa and consistently at a horrible loss even the Lagos-London route; one of the most profitable routes on earth.

On the continental level, there are certain affiliations that at best weaken Africa's chances of a multilateral plan by airlines and governments to guard against losing strategic control of their aviation sectors.

For a start, North African carriers have a stronger bond and a greater sense of loyalty with the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) than with Sub-Saharan Africa. Emirates, Etihad and Qatar are some of the Middle EAst  carriers that are presenting serious competition to African carriers.

Secondly, most of the strong carriers in Africa are government owned who some level of protection as well as access to national funds. Most of them also enjoy the benefits of being IATA members. However, within IATA itself African carriers account for less than 3 percent of it's activities and earnings.

Thirdly, though both camps (MENA and Government owned carriers) are members of AFRAA (African Airlines Association), which really just serves as a backup plan for them, as AFRAA has only 40 members out of the over 190 registered airlines in Africa.

Fourthly, the ideal platform for a renaissance of African Aviation; AFCAC (African civil aviation commission) an arm of the African Union (AU) has not been able to provide the leadership and assert it's legitimacy in recent events. Both AFCAC and the AU need to hone their diplomatic skills in charting a course that will see the Pan-African vision become a reality.

Finally, ICAO the ever present enduring arm of the UN (United Nations) lacks both the funding and the legitimacy to engender the high level political co-ordination needed to harness the synergy within the 54 African member states. I have to mention that IATA has been doing some impressive work to enhance aviation safety on the continent. A win-win for them as they are able to both fortify and protect the interest of their 240 plus global members on the continent as well as support the quest for safer African skies.

Unless the African Ministers of Transport/Aviation are able to get a grip on reality and move swiftly, they should expect a more vindictive blacklist from the EU. Which will soon Followed by increased co-operation among the foreign carriers (based on their IATA alliance memberships); a sort of re-partitioning of the African aviation market, which will leave Africa's strong carriers most of which are IATA members namely; South African Airlines, Ethiopian, Kenya Airways, Egypt Air, Royal air Maroc, Tunisair, etc, in a quandary.

On the Nigerian scene, the local airlines are under the illusion that if they can undermine each other, they will eliminate the competition, increase market share and control the (local) market. Unfortunately, this will only weaken the entire group and make it easier for the real competition (coming soon) to waltz in without encountering any real resistance. The regulator (NCAA) has been deluded in thinking that by providing weak economic regulation, it is giving the airlines some respite and maybe a lifeline. Sadly, it is unwittingly delivering them the hangman's noose. News of their poor credit history and lack of financial discipline (tolerated by the NCAA) spreads beyond national borders and jeopardises the reputation of the whole group (Country) in international circles. This becomes a real hindrance in taking advantage of the Cape Town convention and securing favourable lease and insurance conditions. It breeds complacency among the operators and leaves them operating without robust business plans or financial discipline. The result is the obvious low life expectancy and high failure rates of airlines in the Country.

The major threat will present itself in the guise of a private-public-partnership (PPP) where the funds and technical partner will originate from foreign entities. This is backed the usual excuse that it is a requirement to help Africa’s carriers secure favourable insurance premiums, maintenance contracts and unquestionable training standards. If the management control and MOU are not scrupulously checked against violating bi-laterals, cabotage or both, these new regional entrants will consummate strong commercial agreements with European and/or Middle East carriers (who currently have nearly 70% share of the international traffic) to provide feeder-traffic. The local populace will be lured with new improved loyalty programmes. The regional market that is currently in the hands of the local industry will become dominated by external majors through this new unguarded regional PPP.

If the NCAA and the Nigerian Government (Aviation Ministry) have any inkling of perception they should:

1.     Immediately commence the required level of economic regulation and shut down any operators that are not able to operate within the financial guidelines.

2.     Give the local industry 90 days to come up with sensible strategic consolidation options that will see the Nigerian aviation industry emerge with between 3 to 5 formidable airlines.

3.    Revisit and assess the current invasion of airports by a plethora of private jets to ascertain their benefits or otherwise to the local industry and the nations security.

Sometimes people forget that Kenya Airways is still 26% owned by KLM and Comair in South Africa is a Franchise of British airways. Then you will not wonder why the profits are repatriated outside the African continent rather than invested in the much-needed infrastructure. A word of caution about our dear Chinese investors; they know how to play hardball even when they are smiling.

In the current economic environment, monopoly of the Africa's international traffic is not enough. This time, it may start "Easy"(pun intended) but it is going to mutate into total local takeover, with a sleight of hand. Watch this space. To be precise, Stelios and the Rubicon group have bought over Fly540; a budding East African low cost carrier and they intend to create a low cost carrier based in Accra Ghana. Currently Nigeria provides over 65% of aviation traffic in the West African sub-region

The NCAA and the error of weak economic Regulation.

It is heart warming to see the Federal government is not wasting time in investigating the state of the industry. There have been some comments as to the impact of economic regulation on safety and sustainability of the aviation industry. I therefore feel compelled to air my thoughts on that. I intend to limit my contribution to the airline operators.
One of the bones I have to pick with the NCAA is their tactics of  'consistently weak economic regulation'. The first part involves ignoring obvious signs that airlines are facing serious cash flow problems. Usually evidenced by a host of abnormalities such as; (1) staff salaries delayed for extensive periods, (2) flights delayed because the 90 day credit limit with fuel vendors is breached and fuel has to be purchased by cash from ticket sales after passengers have boarded (3) NAMA refusing to clear the aircraft to depart because navigation/landing/parking fees have not been settled when due, (4) aircraft interior furnishings are falling apart, etc. These are not directly unsafe, but it makes you wonder about the secondary effect of these signs. And also, What else has been concealed by the operators? How much of non-mandatory training has been sliced off the books? How many time expired components are still on the plane simply because they are still functioning? Do the planes really depart with the required IFR minimum fuel reserves so they can hold when weather conditions suddenly deteriorate or they'll just have to try and land in the thunderstorm and windshear because they did'nt have the extra fuel required for holding or diversion?  Are the staff who have'nt been paid really performing their jobs optimally or they are hungry, emotionally distracted and worried about lack of food, unpaid school fees, expired rents, etc.? I insist that these will invariably have a negative effect on safety standards and should not be tolerated within the industry. Is the NCAA so blind or am I just being paranoid?
 The second part involves the abuse of discretion to grant extensions to airlines requesting to defer periodic maintenance processes. This should only be granted in extraneous circumstances. And when it is deemed necessary, let it published on the NCAA's website so that both the public and professionals can know and if necessary challenge any inconsistencies in the process. These two points have lulled our airline operators into a sense of false security. The recapitalisation of 2007 has not helped as it just weeded the very bad players out, leaving just the “bad players”and a few good ones in the game. These are now becoming "very bad" themselves. I'm shocked that the unscrupulous "Bellview" has been allowed to mutate and return as "First Nation". What an insult to common sense. Knowing some Bellview staff are still being owed their last six months salaries for over 2 years! How insensitive of the NCAA to allow people like Odukoya to present themselves into the limelight without making amends for his past misdemeanours. I hear they have unsettled debts at Heathrow airport as well. Given the opportunity, I'll give 90 days to the current 16 airlines and ask them to confer and merge themselves into between 3 to 5 airlines. These must have clear business plans, defined business models and robust quality management systems in place. At which we'll do everything possible to support them including tax breaks, duty free on consumables, zero interest loans and loan guarantees with aircraft manufacturers to facilitate procurement of new equipment and realistic lease/maintenance contracts. The government can support the aviation development without throwing money at the airlines and this is what I want to prove. Giving them money I believe will just encourage fiddling and bribing to continue unabated.
For those who are not aware, Nigeria’s population is 18% (nearly 1/5) that of the entire African continent and currently has the second highest revenue passenger kilometer (RPK) second only to South Africa in the continent. Nigerian airlines present 60% of commercial aviation activity in West Africa for now. In 2018, we’ll be the largest economy in Africa. The major advantage we have is that our GDP is predicted to grow at an average of 4.4% for the next 20years. Even China will have to pay attention to our potential.
Two strategies that I believe will cut down the operating cost of our local airlines by about 15% are:
Grant the airlines under the aegis of something more sensible than the AON, the license to import the Jet A1 and Avgas required by the industry stakeholders to be sold to all operators at a non-profit pricing. I’m not dreaming this up; the indian airline industry has tried that, though a bit too late for some of their operators.
I’ll facilitate a private sector initiative to setup a type rating training organicity (TRTO), in partnership with reputable foreign partners comprising of three full flight simulators (FFS) of the most popular type of commercial jet aircraft operating in the west African sub region. Namely B737 classic, B737 NG and A320 series. This will either be cited in Lagos, Abuja or the Nigerian college of aviation Zaria. If this is accomplished, the facility the first of its type in the whole of West Africa. It will serve the following purposes:
(1) Save 65% of the US$16.3Million Nigerian airlines spend yearly on pilot recurrent simulator training overseas to pay for visas, flight tickets, hotel accommodation, subsistence allowances, etc. The actual simulator training required only 35% of the total amount spent.
(2) Provide pilot training service other operators in West Africa and Africa at large.
(3) Provide easy access for type ratings to aspiring pilots in the entire West African sub-region. who would not be able to afford international travel fares, housing, subsistence, etc to get a commercial jet type rating.
(4) Be a source of revenue for the Country; increase our GDP.
(5) Acquire new skill sets for the aviation industry in the area of full service TRTO operation.
(6) Increase the chances of Africa meeting Boeing’s predicted requirement of an extra 715 pilots per year in order to cope with its demand for pilots in 2030.

For what its worth, I believe the Minister will continue on the right path. Let's just hope she'll have the foresight to recognise good advice when she finds it.
There are things I wished I had done 13yrs ago. We probably would not have been in this mess. The current model with which the NCAA is regulating both safety and the economics of the industry is unsustainable and will result in us losing strategic control of this vital tool for Nigeria's economic development. This sounds like a voice crying out in the wilderness, the real question is who is listening?. However, it is true that even the most spectacular musical rendition amounts to nothing, when the audience is deaf.