Safety of the Nigerian Skies

The skies have always been safe until we begin tinkering with natures’ balance without adequate safe guards. The result of conflict between nature and technology was aptly demonstrated when a fully serviceable jet flies into a flock of migrating Canada geese as in the case of Capt. Chelsey Sullenberger and US Airways flight 1549. Similarly, a risk is introduced in an already hazardous environment when you find fatigued pilots at the controls, or underpaid, overworked and/or inexperienced air traffic controllers on long shifts without adequate rest. It is pernicious to expect our air traffic controllers to adequately manage our increasing air traffic without serviceable VHF communication equipment and required air traffic management (ATM) tools. When you consider that the three major causes of aviation accidents are  loss of control (LOC), control flight into terrain (CFIT) and runway events, you’ll expect our air traffic management system to be fully equipped with both short-term and medium-term conflict alerting systems (MTCA, STCA),  minimum safe altitude warning systems(MSAW), as well as approach path monitoring systems (APM), runway status lights systems (RWSL) and airport surveillance detection radars (ASDE-X). This will be a precursor to the attainment of low visibility operations (LVO) as well as to increase traffic this region is expected to witness. Many factors have to be considered in order to ascertain the state of the aviation industry. These include accident rate, fatalities, organisational structures, regulations, supporting infrastructure, safety culture, levels of compliance and a whole lot of other factors.
It may surprise you to know that within a period of just three weeks, from 22 July to 12 August 2012 the UK and the USA experienced at least 84 aircraft accidents with only 15 fatalities. So accidents still happen even in developed economies. However when a high number fatalities is involved, it does attract a lot of public attention. And the public perception is what matters. Historically, the public assumes the USA and the UK  are safe while Nigeria and most of Africa and inherently unsafe. It is this public perception that we have to strive and correct. Not by denying and ignoring our shortcomings but by correcting them. An honest appraisal of the status of our communication, navigation and surveillance (CNS)  and air traffic management services (ATM) by end users should reveal the true state of affairs.

I was privileged to attend the 9th IATA  Air-Traffic Service Incident Analysis Working Group (AIAG) which took place in Johannesburg South Africa on from 8th to 9th March 2012. The feedback for a few countries in sub-Saharan Africa was not very good, Nigeria inclusive.
As a matter of fact Nigeria and about 14 other countries mostly in sub-Saharan Africa are the only places where pilots have to constantly Broadcast their position at least every 20 minutes so that other pilots could know where they are. This inconvenient but necessary measure is mandated because the communication navigation and surveillance equipment and services provided by the air navigation service providers (ANSP) in this countries is deemed to be unreliable. The working group only discussed air-traffic incidents where there was a risk of collision between aircrafts. Nigeria (Kano FIR) experienced 8 occurrences in 2011 that could have resulted in mid-air collisions. These were documented in the form of air safety reports (ASR) and analysed by a teams of experts. A  number of factors responsible for these incidents included lack of coordination, unserviceable equipment, human error, ATM operations, and procedural failures. Other factors are excessive ATC overload, combined sectors control, poor ATC performance requiring further training, non-implementation of the IATA in-flight broadcast procedure (IFBT), inadequate/unserviceable mobile communications, poor crew discipline and error. Perhaps recent reports that foreign airlines are avoiding Nigeria’s airspace may not be far-fetched. At the moment it is a sort of the blame game between NAMA and the rest of the stakeholders, so a survey of the end users of the airspace or a proper investigation will clarify the true state of affairs .

Poor liaison by most Nigerian operators in industry initiatives
At this meeting, it was disappointing that no Nigerian airline operator was represented including our two IATA member airlines; Arik air and Air Nigeria. I had a privilege of having a brief meeting with the head of the Africa and Indian Ocean (AFI)  regional monitoring agency (ARMA ) responsible for collating fleet data as well as monitoring of the performance of the RVSM in Africa.  One of their major concerns was lack of corporation from the Nigerian operators in providing the required height monitoring data from their fleet. This is needed to verify the system operational performance.
NAMA and a lack of adequate emergency response (ER) and search and rescue (SAR) services.
There appears to be very poor co-ordination between the Nigerian airspace management agency (NAMA) and the Nigerian emergency management agency (NEMA) in coordinating both emergency response (ER) and search and rescue (SAR) services. It is obvious that our search and rescue facilities has been put to its paces and it has consistently failed to make the mark. The recent DANA 0992 accident is another proof that we need to take emergency response and search and rescue services seriously. The studies conducted by the NTSB showed that only 27% of fatalities occur as a result of the impact of an accident,  the remaining fatalities occur as a result of other secondary factors which can be avoided by provision of prompt emergency response on the scene of an accident.

The $81M question: Was Nigeria’s investment in TRACON a good idea or should we have invested in more efficient yet cheaper to acquire, operate and maintain future-proof satellite based technology (GNSS, WAAS, ADS-B, ADS-C, etc)?
Most countries are moving away from terrestrial radar and investing in satellite based technology. This was obvious since 2003 when the United States of America revealed their intention to de-commissioned most their 295 civil radar installations by 2018 in line with the “NEXTGEN” objective.  Here is a quote from the FAA NEXTGEN report of March 2012.
“Safety is the FAA’s first priority. The NextGen systems, policies and procedures that we are implementing are designed to ensure that the U.S. air transportation system remains the safest in the world. Satellite-based surveillance improves upon radar by providing controllers with more frequent and more accurate aircraft location information. This information can also be delivered to the cockpit, offering operators of properly equipped aircraft unprecedented traffic awareness.”1
And to cater for instrument landing approach replacement; “The FAA also plans to publish Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) Localizer Performance with Vertical Guidance (LPV) approach procedures for all suitable runways by 2016.”
It is still shocking that officials in NAMA have the myopic audacity to say we’re making progress by paying over $40m for technology that is being phased out  and getting more expensive to maintain because it is no longer in mass production. Talk about NAMA being proactive is an insult to common sense and will only come from someone who is out of touch with reality and industry trends. The ill conceived TRACON was 4 years behind schedule and ATC units are at least 25% understaffed. This does not describe proactivity. A wise and proactive administrator should be able realise the need to modify current plans and strategy based on new and superior information. Countries like Algeria, Botswana, Chad and Congo have started rolling out ADS-B trials why is Nigeria still lagging behind? Granted, the total reader coverage (TRACON) was initiated in 1997 but the contract was not signed until 2003. It was also later reviewed again in late 2003. The ability to integrate ADS-B functionality into the air traffic management (ATM) will provide considerable safety, economic and environmental benefits to the industry. This is generally achieved by facilitating expeditious departures and arrivals as well as direct routings to aircraft. The gains are reduced fuel burn, quicker sector times,  reduced aircraft noise and their attendant environmental impacts.
NASI expects a full public investigation into the NAMA and TRACON saga when the current litany of litigations surrounding the deal is resolved by the courts.

Dialogue with the NCAA
We have had meaningful discussions on certain issues with the NCAA boss. And we’re pleased with the positive response to some of our criticisms. Especially in the area of economic regulation concerning late payment of staff salaries. However, the process wasn’t well thought through as further sanctions including legal action may be required to compel airlines such as Air Nigeria that had consistently refused to pay stuff salaries while grounded. We have also witnessed increased surveillance on airline operations. We shall continue to engage the stakeholders in meaningful discussions to ensure that safety is not only achieved but also maintained. We’re sure more than 50% of the current operators should not be in the airline business. An IOSA certification is not a guarantee of international standards. Arik and Air Nigeria are proof that a safety culture does not exist on a certificate. We are watching to see how the regulator  and the Minister intends to handle the under-performance being exhibited by the operators and service providers.

Aircraft tracking system
We have to commend the NCAA for successfully acquiring an aircraft tracking technology. With this equipment in the system which has the ability to accurately track all aircraft movements within the Nigerian airspace in real time, it will facilitate quick search and rescue (SAR) operation and improve chances of saving lives rather than just salvaging a wreck. I would like to point out that this is a future-proof satellite based system that does not require any surface radar for its operation. So thumps up to the NCAA for that.

Most Nigerian operators are paying lip service to safety, there is no management commitment to the written safety policy objectives

Most Nigerian airline operators and service providers are paying lip service to safety and quality management. A vital part of the safety management system absent in most of our operators is management commitment and responsibility to safety policy and objectives. The second aspect that I find missing among line management personnel is practical risk management. This involves the identification, analysis and elimination or mitigation of the risks that pose a significant threat to the reputation organisation. It has to do with balancing the allocation of resources. The result might be a review of the operating and or maintenance procedures to achieve a segregation of exposure or the building of redundancies to protect against it. The tools used to achieve this are usually regulations, training or technology. Anyone in doubt should compare the public perception of our safety and quality standards with countries like Kenya, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia. There must be ample evidence to show that a safety culture is in place. And that is the challenge for the NCAA to show. If I had a safety culture in place, the NCAA  would have received confidential or anonymous reports from professionals working in Dana about the safety violations before the accident. This will have allowed corrective actions and mitigating measures to correct them and prevented the accident from happening. Obviously people knew they were violations that we’re afraid to come out and say it and did not trust the NCAA enough to tell them about it. The findings of in-house audits carried out by company safety managers should be able to reveal the absence the gaps in the safety chain, as well as the remedial actions required to close this gaps within a specified time frame. An external audit by the regulator should be able to show what the dairies continuous improvement towards safety. And that is the true test whether a safety culture is in place in an organisation or not.

NCAA needs to provide indisputable evidence that there is a genuine commitment to entrench a safety culture in Nigerian aviation
The safety culture does not happen overnight it has got to be top driven and backed by a series of surveys and data correlation processes. A  cursory look at our  various national cultures will reveal that we do have a ‘large power distance culture’ where rich individuals in the society tend to wield some demigod-like status and demand preferential treatment in the sight of the law. This is exhibited in the arrogance and lack of decorum by certain politicians and businessmen including airline entrepreneurs. The general populace however,  are influenced by a strong ‘uncertainty avoidance culture’ and a bias towards collectivism, masculinity and short-term orientation. These attributes unless delicately handled will pose serious hindrances to the evolution of a safety culture within our industry. As a starting point, I strongly recommend that we need to conduct an industrywide safety culture survey. To be closely followed by the implementation of a confidential human factors reporting system that is both anonymous and non-punitive. This will provide the benefit of increased accident and incident reporting. My personal opinion is that, in the evolution safety cultures, Nigeria is in the reactive stage and slowly progressing towards the calculative stage.

If there is no evidence that Diana is culpable then the grounding order must be lifted
According to ICAO annex 13 an accident investigation is a factual exercise to determine the immediate and remote causes of an accident, with a view to making recommendations that will forestall a re-occurrence. Personally I have my doubts with regards to the information from the AIB that the flight data recorder was destroyed in the subsequent fire as a result of the crash. The equipment is designed to  withstand sustained heat at 1100°C for up to 30 minutes. However, if the preliminary report did not indict DANA of any culpability or breach of safety regulations there is no justification in preventing DANA from resuming flight operations.  Unless the AIB has information that the MD -83 type aeroplane is inherently dangerous due to some design feature in which case it should be publicised. Otherwise by grounding DANA for over 3 months without any indictment from the AIB, the NCAA and Federal Ministry of aviation are setting a dangerous precedence that will open them to litigation and has a strong chance destroying the fragile trust currently existing within the industry.

Challenges to Nigeria's burgeoning aviation industry

The future of the Nigeria's aviation industry is strongly dependent on the future of the African industry. It is the fact that Nigeria as a country provides 65% of the aircraft movement in West African sub-region which is more or less representative of the Banjul accord group (BAG) with its headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria. Africa's revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) is set to more than double in the next 20 years; from 250 billion RPK to 720 billion RPK in 2030. Nigeria currently has the second highest RPK coming only second behind South Africa.south Africa taking the lead. However Nigeria is set to become Africa's largest economy by 2018. The Country also hosts West Africa’s regional safety oversight organisation (RSOO) office. On the continental level, Nigeria is gaining prominence so there is an urgent need for more co-operation and consensus building among African States and their carriers. Nigeria should seek strong commercial agreements and mergers with African carriers in order to strengthen the group against external competition. The Yamoussoukro Decision (YD) must be fully implemented as soon as possible for greater consensus building and corporation on a continent-wide level. It will be a major boost to the continent if African carriers and States come together and use the instruments of the African development Bank (ADB) to set up an aircraft leasing company that will enable them take advantage of the Cape town convention of 2005 and modernise the fleet across the continent. It is a major drawback that some member nations are yet to sign the YD. However, all signatories of the Abuja treaty of 12th May 1994 are automatically bound to implement the YD. However, complacency has seen bred a lack lustre  culture to the implementing group objectives. The expeditious implementation of YD is hindered because certain articles in trade agreements currently existing between some African nations and their OECD donors indirectly discourage regional integration. African leaders should realise by now that the only real chance Africa has at sustainable development is regional synergy.

No clearly understood Policy, strategy and poor implementation leading to loss of focus. 
Nigeria’s Aviation industry challenges has to approached from a top-down perspective beginning at the policy level. This naturally feeds into the strategy, and implementation stages. The policy defines how the industry will be administered  and what are the over-arching objectives. The strategy outlines the actions and steps necessary to attain those goals. These will include time-lines with specific goals. The key here is that Nigeria's aviation policy has to be in harmony with the policy thrust of African civil aviation commission (AFCAC) in order to achieve the objective of YD which is regional integration and harnessing of synergies. Policy implementation is the phase where this country has witnessed its greatest failures. Aviation is an industry that relies heavily on technical and innovative skills, making basic education and the ability to adapt to technology indispensable attributes of its workforce. The importance of successful implementation cannot be overemphasised because this is the phase where hypothesis is translated into tangible products or services and ideas are turned into achievements. It is imperative that this phase be transparently deftly executed because it requires balancing the theoretically planned strategy with the exigencies of real life events. For example, it is a fact that the universal primary education (UPE) re-launched by President Shagari in 1982 also was not sustained. This is evidenced by the 32% or 50 million Nigerians aged 15 years and above who cannot read or write. The failure of that educational policy portends long term adverse effect on the  nations economic growth. The effects in aviation can be seen in these ways. First, it inhibits the ability of the industry to meet its capacity building targets by the absence of the requisite skilled and competent personnel. Secondly, reduces the earning power of the general population because of the obvious degraded income of  an illiterate and less productive populace. Finally, The inability of the country to take advantage of the revenue inflow as a result of the mobility of highly skilled migrant workers making remittance to their countries of origin which serves to increase overall GDP.
In view of the above it is obvious that there is a general loss of focus within the industry. Otherwise, there would have been frequent reinforcement of the policy objectives, the strategies being adopted and the level of implementation of the programs and projects that the various agencies and  stakeholders are implementing. Credible safety management system (SMS) must be backed by safety assurance and promotion schemes rolled out across all agencies and replicated by all relevant stakeholders. The various agencies that should be working in synchronism, are rather working at cross purposes. There is the need for the alignment of policies and strategies between the various agencies of government. This should include the Ministry of Science and technology, labour and transport to mention but a few. 

lack of transparency, accountability and proper checks and balances within the system resulting in loss of group synergy and monumental fraud.
The challenges facing the Nigerian aviation industry are indicative of the challenges facing our Federal system of government and it’s institutions; especially in the area of socio-economic development.
Our biggest challenge is the lack of synergy in policy implementation which is exacerbated by a system of governance and administration that lacks of transparency, accountability and proper checks and balances within the system. The result is Policy somersault, gross inefficiencies and prevalence of serious fraud. I believe all the parastatals and agencies of the aviation Ministry have been enmeshed in a culture of perpetual serious fraud. The level of which can only be identified after an open and detailed investigation is carried. It is obvious that these two agencies FAAN and NAMA have have witnessed monumental amounts of fraud in the last 6 years. Bearing in mind that there has been frequent management changes in most agencies, employees and managers who have clean hands in these places have the moral duty call for in-depth investigations.

The lack of Security,  adequate power supply and the rule of law are threats to both sustainable safe operations and foreign direct investment (FDI).
The economic foot print of Nigeria’s aviation industry is marginal considering its obvious potentials.  Primarily because the sectors’ main activities of airlines operation and the supporting ground infrastructure are still in a low levels of development. In 2010, the cumulative contribution of the direct, indirect, induced and catalytic channels of air travel to both employment and gross domestic product (GDP) was approximately 295,000 jobs and N200b respectively. Two major factors responsible for the slow social and economic development of the entire country for the past three decades are lack of adequate electrical power supply and the lack of jurisprudence or respect for the rule of law and order. Recently the country has been experiencing worsening security threats mainly as a result of activities of both internal and external terrorists groups; notably among them is one identified as boko-haram. The current lack of security is becoming of more concern than the first two factors of power supply and the rule of law. Without adequate power supply there is no way the Country can make progress in areas of key infrastructural projects and manufacturing processes. Without jurisprudence and respect for law and order there is no way we can attract foreign investors.
However, without adequate security, there will be no Country or governance. I would like to highlight that these two factors were also raised by Chinese investors to our Okonjo-Iwealla led economic team in February as causes of concern with regards to their planned $3.5 billion investment in Nigeria’s economy. That investment is expected to be channelled into power generation and distribution, agricultural and transport sector for the next two years. Also note that that expected $3.5 billion is not for aviation alone, but for the entire transport sector which will comprise a rail, roads, sea and air transportation.

Industry deficient in skilled and experienced man-power due to
Neglect of training and manpower development
For the past 7 years a major obstacle in Africa's inability to meet its safety oversight  functions is the lack of requisite competent  manpower. It is obvious that for the past few years a lot of training has taken place within both the administration and professional cadre of aviation agencies. 
However it is hoped that the NCAA will strive to retain these personnel by offering realistic prospects for secure and rewarding professional careers in Nigeria. According to the World Bank tertiary enrolment for developing Countries stands at 10% of the population compared to 56% for Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Countries. It is evident that Africa will find it challenging to produce the number of development professionals needed to sustain economic growth in the aviation sector without a serious change in educational and labour policies.
Note that a conservative estimate from Boeing last year dictates that Africa needs to provide and additional 715 pilots and 960 aircraft engineers every year for the next 20 years to be able to man it's aviation sector planned capacity. Nigeria's' population is 18% of Africa's hence we are expected to provide the appropriate 18% of the manpower. This comes to precisely 128 additional pilots and 172 new engineers every year. Failing to meet this target means Africa will have to mitigate the shortfall by employing expatriates. These will eventually repatriated both the acquired skills and revenue  back to their home countries to the detriment of this continent. The problem could have been eliminated if the promised academic upgrade and expansion of the Nigerian College of Aviation technology (NCAT) had been carried out as planned. A recent census of ICAO recognised aviation training institutions in Africa showed that the United Kingdom has more ICAO recognised aviation institutions than the 54 African countries combined.

Brain drain caused by security concerns and poor psychological contracts
The current security concerns experienced in some northern part of the country as result into movement of people  and businesses away from the perceived hot spots like Jos. The psychological contract is a series of unwritten expectations that employees expect from their employer and vice versa. The remuneration (pay) is only a tip of the iceberg when it comes to expectation. Principal among these latent expectations are security and safety, training and development, recognition for the work and efforts invested. Most employment contracts make no provision for loss of license insurance, medical cover, pension, union representation and unbiased conflict resolution processes.  The current proliferation of expatriate staff  experienced within the Nigerian aviation industry leads to disparity of conditions and local staff disaffection. A scenario where there is no employee engagement and group synergy provides the perfect environment for the emergence of latent pathogens that could threaten safety.

Lack of enabling laws to provide a safety net for professionals in safety critical organisations.
Aviation professionals in Nigeria are exposed to excessive commercial pressure without any legal protection. These happens because managers insist on meeting target on time performance, schedule integrity,  achieve cost savings, etc. The end result is safety is compromised for economic benefits.This include pilots, engineers, air traffic controllers, dispatchers, handling agents, ground equipment operators, etc.
Some operational safety issues reported include:

• Engineers are cajoled into signing certificates of release to service when the aircraft obviously unserviceable.

• Dispatchers encouraged to falsify weights in order to carry all commercial payload.

• At traffic controllers required to work:

• without the neccessary serviceable equipment.

• overtime due to low manpower levels.

• Pilots being reprimanded, fined for:

• Safely executing go-arounds from an unstable approach.

• Writing serious defects in the aircraft technical log.

• Refusing to fly an unserviceable aircraft.

• Insisting on taking the legal amount of fuel for flights.

The prebendal culture and the absence of the whistleblower protection policy.
Nigeria needs to evolve a whistleblower policy that insures protection of both the system and the users. This this will serve to reduce the spread of corruption within the system. It would also help in identifying hazards and taking mitigating action before the entire group is compromised. The absence of this feature has left our aviation system constantly being overrun by corruption. Good people within the system who observe anomalies such as unsafe practices or misuse of public funds are left with the difficult choice of speaking out and sacrificing their careers and livelihood or keeping quiet and hoping someone else will do something about it. The result is a system void of transparency and accountability that fosters a contagion of corruption and unethical practices.
Inherent prebendal culture leads to depletion of the much needed manpower. It is unfortunate that with every change in Administration the top level management are usually prematurely retired or fired irrespective of the competency and integrity. This unwarranted high turnover of our top professionals deprives the sector of the much-needed manpower required for capacity building. Some of management staff anticipate this cycle and begin looting the system in preparation for undignified exit.


Poor infrastructure especially lack of adequate aerodrome lighting to support nighttime operations operations.
Lack of proper facilities at airports has led to serious losses by airlines. Aero Contractors claim to have lost about N6 billion as a result of poor infrastructure across the country. Some reports indicate that the combined losses to airlines is in excess of N2 billion as a result of runway 18left at Lagos being unusable at night.  Another aspect that is being neglected is the impact of uneven wear on both runways and the cost manipulation. It is regrettable that agencies like FAAN, NIMET and NAMA that are expected to enhance safe flight service operations are now actively jeopardising safety by not providing adequate infrastructure and facilities.


Lack of commercial simulator facility in the west African region
In a widely circulated publication the NCAA reported that Nigeria airlines spend about $16.3 million every year for pilot recurrent simulator training. Approximately 70% of the continent of this cost is incurred due to the absence of a commercial stimulator facility in Nigeria. Thus necessitating expenditure and loss of productivity while attending visa interviews, payment for the visas, flight tickets, estacode, hotel accommodation and other sundry expenses. You can imagine the cost savings that will accrue to the local industry by the presence of a full flight simulator training facility in Nigeria.

Absence of adequate maintenance repairs and overhaul (MRO) facilities to cater for the various commercial and civil aircraft in operating Nigeria.
Once again another case of policy neglect at the implementation stage. If the National hangar project which was decided in 1977 had been implemented, this problem would be non-existent. In 2009 negotiations had commenced between the Nigeria’s aviation authorities and Lufthansa technik with a view to setting up an MRO in Nigeria. It is unfortunate that nearly 2 years later the idea appears to be a distant reality.  Aero contractors has made substantial investment and has won the necessary approvals to carry out C-checks on the very popular Boeing 737 aircraft. Which incidentally is the dominant commercial jet aeroplane in the Nigerian industry. I see this initiative with Aero contractors as a stopgap and interim measure rather than the final solution. A sensible plan will be to provide a facility that will be able to meet the maintenance needs of the entire West African sub region, seeing that Nigeria provides 65% of the traffic in the West African region


Excessive import duties and tariff on aviation consumables and spare parts
There is no doubt aviation businesses in Nigeria have been subject to a regime of harsh taxes and tariffs. With industry margins averaging 3 to 5% it is inevitable this will erode any chances for profitability. It is strongly recommended that the following incentives be immediately implemented:
 All aviation businesses should be given a five-year tax holiday commencing from next financial year.
This should be accompanied by zero import duties on all airpower parts and consumables.
 Nigerian airlines should be given the license to import and distributed jet A1 to reduce operational cost.

Conclusion and  2 recommendations

The Global industry is facing a tough operating environments cut cost and maximise profits. This year European airlines are expected to declare a loss of $1.1 billion and African airlines a loss of $100 million. With this grim prediction, you can infer British Airways rationale for investing $5 billion in its African portfolio. Historical data indicates that in tough economic conditions currently experienced in Europe, airlines that will survive must have the capacity to absorb losses as well as capture markets from those airlines that will  jettison routes or cease operations. On the hand, Asian airlines should lead global profits at $2 billion this year, while their American counterparts are expected to earn $1.4 billion. Airlines in Latin America and the Middle East are expected to show profits of $400 million each.


Nigerian airlines must consolidate in order to harness the synergies needed to survive the competition.
Nigerian airlines should immediately embark on strategic review of their business models to aid in choice of strategic options. They should seriously consider strategic mergers and acquisitions to facilitate access to intangible assets such as new markets, airport slots, supply chain integration and increased corporate versatility. For the immediate future we need to consolidate our 16 airlines into three or five viable airline groups. Secondly the NCAA needs to close the gaps in their oversight functions especially the safety and economic regulatory aspects. As far as I’m concerned the distress in the airline industry started with their unsustainable loans. Resulting in a spiralling debt profiles, necessitating the intervention by the central bank of Nigeria (CBN) through the asset management company (AMCON) in 2008. Whether it was deliberate or not this bears a similitude to the chapter 11 bankruptcy protection that is offered by the USA to its carriers. At that time we thought Arik  Air was poised to set a new standard in financial prudence but we were shocked that they needed the refinancing option as well. The mistake AMCON and the NCAA did was failing to have the airlines under administrative scrutiny . With hindsight, events in the last 12 months have shown that perhaps only one scheduled airline in the country has a sustainable business plan. Though part of the impediments are external to the business and can be addressed using appropriate government instruments. A plausible option is to give the currently 16 local airlines 90 days to come up with sensible strategic consolidation options that will see the Nigerian aviation industry emerge with between 3 to 5 formidable airlines. Surprisingly they all seem to respond that my suggested strategy  is equivalent to merging a blind man and a lame man together. Of course, it is just what I had in mind! because the only way these two can get somewhere is when the blind man carries the lame man on his shoulder.

The African aviation industry must seek sustainable funding initiatives
Despite late colonel Gaddafi's notoriety he was one man who later in life, believed in Africa's economic and Political independence. After decades of isolation from both the Arab league and the capitalist West he realised even a very rich country needs to develop sensible alliances. It is an record that during regime, Libya was the only country in Africa that never accrued any foreign debts. He became a great champion of the African union and was willing to fund a lot its initiatives. That explains why the declaration of the African Union (AU) was made in 1999 at the town of Sirte in Libya. Gaddafi led the call for one African Central Bank (ACB) which is decidedly based in Abuja and expected to be fully operational in 2025. Libya was willing to fund up to 30% of the African development bank (ACB).
Having just concluded the meeting of the African Council of aviation ministers in Abuja July 2012. The question of funding should also be addressed. Africa (AU) should establish at least one leasing company and take advantage of the Cape Town convention of 2005.  This convention in conjunction with the aircraft protocol addresses the issue of  international interest in mobile equipment. Properly utilised it will provide leverage and access to competitive means of acquiring new equipment for African airlines. Note the Chinese are determined to break the strangle hold of the Bretton-Woods establishment. A monetary union in African is still long way ahead but an African leasing company and spreading our insurance risks to African based underwriters will be a significant strategy to consolidated our financial system.
Sad to say, the AU let Libya down when they were needed the most
And hopefully African development bank will be able to offer competitive low interest loans for the airlines.

Demuren: The first term achievments.

 

 

Stepping Up On The Change Culture In Nigeria …As Demuren Returns..

 published 11th April 2012 By Roland Ohaeri 
 (see my comment at the end of write-up.-- Pam,D,R.)

 

Whereas the achievements of the aviation industry in Nigeria were a collective toiling and moiling of the Ministry of Aviation, aviation parastatals, airlines as well as the private sector support groups, the coordinating role of Dr. Harold Demuren as a core aviation professional and effective leader in Nigeria's and indeed Africa's aviation industry would stand out in the history of civil aviation in Nigeria and Africa - Anonymous

From The Cold

In the dark days of aviation un-safety in Nigeria when aircraft dropped from the skies, Nigeria could only be compared to ill-regulated air transport environments under the pall of civil and political strife in parts of Africa.

The fatalities and frequencies of occurrence of air accidents soared to a frightening crescendo in the 2005/2006 period, such that the industry was forced out of its phlegmatic apathy, so to say, to seek a definite stop to the horrific death-ride. While the then aviation authorities were sizing up the challenge of the fast-plummeting standards among operators, many agreed that an external force could be better positioned to effect the needed change. Dr. Harold Olusegun Demuren, who was on retirement from the government sector of the aviation industry, and at the time overseeing his private airline, Afrijet Airlines, was picked to lead the efforts to re-launch the industry on a new path of safety and overall growth and development. He had served in the former Federal Civil Aviation Authority as Director of Safety Services from 1991 till he was retired in August 1995. He is an Aeronautical Engineer trained in the former Soviet Union and in the US.

Civil Aviation Reforms

Perhaps, the pain from the tragic losses of about 350 fatalities in 2005/2006, the devaluation of Nigeria's esteem in the comity of global civil aviation, and hence urgent need to repair the battered air transport industry in Nigeria were the impelling forces that drove radical improvements that the industry continued to experience from the point Dr. Demuren came in as the DG CAA in December 2005.

Dr. Demuren featured prominently and worked fervently towards the ultimate cleansing of the aviation system in Nigeria. He was at the core of the National Aviation Workshop on Safety, Quality Assurance & Reforms in 2006 organized by the Aviation & Allied Business Journal on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Aviation. The Workshop elicited far-reaching recommendations from key partners in Nigeria's aviation industry under the direct guidance and support of policy and security experts from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and International Air Transport Association (IATA) who deemed it crucial to transform civil aviation policy, safety standards and practice generally in Nigeria at the time. Part of the recommendations of the milestone Workshop was reflected in the widely acclaimed Nigerian Civil Aviation Act 2006, which stands today as a paradigm for several Africa States that need to improve on their civil aviation regulation. The 2006 Act brought in sweeping changes and re-direction to civil aviation in Nigeria, thus handing Nigeria a fresh basis for a robust new beginning, replacing the 1964 Civil Aviation Act which, at best, subdued aviation development in Nigeria in the few decades before 2006. Currently, strong opinions are that useful recommendations contained in the 2006 Civil Aviation Workshop should be harmonized with others from especially the Air Marshal Paul Dike-led aviation committee which sat within the same period, among others, to produce a functional and updated Civil Aviation Policy document to drive aviation development in Nigeria. Working with industry partners also, Dr. Demuren pushed for the achievement of the autonomy of the NCAA, whereby the CAA has ultimate say on the technical regulation of the aviation industry - devoid of political interference that has crippled aviation development in parts of Africa. Perhaps, the autonomy empowered Dr. Demuren to effect change in the industry, and freed him from the nauseating excesses of political intrusion that had been a major hindrance to aviation development in Nigeria. The autonomy of the NCAA is in compliance with ICAO stipulations, and is a good example for African States yet to toe that line.

Cape Town Convention

Dr. Demuren helped to achieve the domestication of the Cape Town Convention in Nigeria. The Convention is an international instrument endorsed by ICAO allowing States that ratify and domesticate the Convention to have empowered their airlines to have easier access to modern aircraft. In other words, airlines from such States that ratify and domesticate the Cape Town Convention can acquire more economically and ecologically efficient aircraft to enhance their operations and get access to juicy markets with inexorable regulatory requirements especially in Europe and the US. All over Africa today, Dr. Demuren is seen as a hero of sort having developed the Nigerian aviation industry into a lead paradigm for several other African States needing guideposts for the development of their local aviation industry. Several States in Africa consult the Demuren-led NCAA to learn the secrets of achieving eligibility to the benefits of the Cape Town Convention, civil aviation reforms, security enhancement, and CAA autonomy, among other achievements of the NCAA.

Zero-Accident

Dr. Demuren has proved that with CAA autonomy comes improved safety. The zero-accident record sustained for scheduled commercial passenger aircraft in Nigeria since 2006 is the most remarkable outcome of Dr. Demuren's stewardship in the industry which is the key measuring tool for public assessment of the state of health of the air transport industry. Public confidence shot up as the international aviation community restated high esteem for the Nigerian aviation industry and its regulators. ICAO and IATA particularly testified to the "tremendous improvement" in the safety standard in Nigeria's aviation industry.

In Marakkech recently at the AFRAA AGA, IATA DG, Mr. Tony Tyler, expressly stated: "The Nigerian example shows what can be achieved. In 2005 it had the worst safety record on the continent with four of the eight hull losses in that year. "Dr. Demuren brought innovation and proved that world-class safety is possible in Africa. There was one further hull loss in 2006. And there have been no hull losses in Nigeria since 2007. Dr. Demuren completes his tenure as Nigeria's DGCA next February and he is owed a great debt of gratitude by IATA and all of our members for his tireless work. His work should be an inspiration."

Optionally Compulsory IOSA Certification

Strongly highlighted at the 2006 Civil Aviation Workshop, and further championed by Dr. Demuren, the IATA Operations Safety Audit (IOSA) for airlines is a basic requirement for Nigerian airlines. The CAA makes the IOSA optionally compulsory for Nigerian airlines, and has continued to encourage them to undergo the audit. Thus far, a number of airlines including Overland Airways, Arik Air, Air Nigeria, among others, have keyed into the culture of IOSA, while some airlines have already got re-certification on the IOSA, which is one of the cornerstones of high safety standards among Nigerian and African airlines today. In Africa, IATA says IOSA airlines achieved an accident rate close to global average several times lower than the general African accident rate in 2011.

In 2006 also, Dr. Demuren, leading the NCAA, mandated all operators in the aviation industry in Nigeria to adopt safety management systems (SMS) which is a form of guidepost for safety. The Just Culture and Voluntary Reporting system is also part of the SMS system whereby operators are encouraged to monitor the precursors of accidents under a non-punitive, corrective-preventive system.

IASA Category 1 Certification

At the cusp of the robust safety record achieved by Nigeria's aviation industry was the achievement of the coveted Category 1 safety certification awarded by the US Federal Aviation Administration (US FAA) to Nigeria in 2010. The US Embassy in Abuja said in 2010 of the certification: "Nigeria has achieved a Category 1 air safety rating from the U.S. Government under the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) International Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA) program. This means that Nigeria complies with international air safety standards set by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the United Nations' technical agency for aviation that establishes international standards and recommended practices for aircraft operations and maintenance." Former U.S. Ambassador, Dr. Robin R. Sanders, officially notified and formally congratulated Dr. Demuren at a brief ceremony on the certification in Abuja.

Her words: "This achievement is an important milestone for Nigeria and US-Nigeria bilateral relations. It is only fitting that this coveted Category 1 rating comes at the dawn of the nation's year of Golden Jubilee. The US Mission, NCAA, and FAA have worked together as a team in the true spirit of bilateral partnership over the last two years to achieve this goal. Hats off to everyone for a job well-done and a rating well-deserved."

According to the US Embassy, Nigeria is one of just six African countries, including Cape Verde, Egypt, Ethiopia, Morocco and South Africa, with an IASA Category 1 rating." In this light, Ghana's Deputy Minister of Transport, Hon. Dzifa Attivor, said last year in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, that Ghana is intensifying efforts to re-establish its EASA Category 1 status. Results of the Category Certification 1 include the empowerment of Nigerian airlines to fly direct to the US with Nigerian-registered aircraft as Arik Air is currently doing.

Aviation Security

When the failed bombing of December 25, 2009 occurred, the urgent need to re-arrange the security apparatus in Nigeria came to the fore. Driven by Dr. Demuren with the support of the Aviation Ministry, Nigeria became one of the first countries globally to adopt 3D security technology and 100 percent pat-down at the airports in line with the new and emerging threats to aviation security. Following the conference of African Aviation Ministers in Abuja at the instance of ICAO in 2010 which produced Africa's Aviation Security Roadmap, Dr. Demuren in 2011 presided over the second summit on aviation security in Dakar, Senegal. Working together with the US Transport Security Board, the NCAA under Dr. Demuren and Nigeria's Ministry of Aviation, has turned the searchlight on the internal sides of aviation organizations, mainly airports and airlines, to flush out what is now known as aviation insider threats. Sustaining high level of security is an on-going task as are other aspects of air transport, which must become a culture among all operators in the industry.

Manpower Development

Dr. Demuren has been able to achieve greater professionalism and infectious enthusiasm among public and private industry partners. Training, motivation and culture building is more pronounced in the aviation industry in Nigeria for fear of clampdown from the NCAA, on the one hand, and also for fear of a relapse into the pre-2006 state, on the other.

The CAA set a safety-enhancing hurdle of recertification for all existing and upcoming airlines in Nigeria, and has set out also to certificate all airports in the country. This may be the final ground-setting for the build-up of the superstructures and steady development in the aviation industry in Nigeria.

Accolades From ICAO

Perhaps, on the strength of the remarkably upped safety and other standards in Nigeria, in addition to the country's soaring international profile in aviation circles, ICAO picked Dr. Demuren to be the President of the ICAO 37th Assembly in Montreal, Canada, the first for any African. By this turn, many say the ovation reached the apogee for Dr. Demuren. But with so much yet undone, Dr. Demuren believes the foundation has only been laid for the build-up of all aspects of the aviation industry in Nigeria, West Africa and Africa generally.

Regional Cooperation & Development

Dr. Demuren has been an ardent advocate of a domestic airline market in West Africa. He says, in the spirit of the Yamoussoukro Decision (YD), which seeks the dismantling of State and regional barriers to African airlines, all States in West Africa should relax their civil aviation laws such that an airline from any West African State can perform domestic operations in any other West African State without inhibition. However, States are only tardily responding, if not unwilling to respond, to this crucial call.

BAGASOO And BAGAIA

Whereas the air transport industry in Africa, toeing the line of ICAO, is prioritizing regional capacity building for safety, security and manpower development, Dr. Demuren, along with key aviation experts in the West African region, took the lead to establish the Banjul Accord Group Safety Oversight Organization (BAGASOO), and the BAG Accident Investigation Agency (BAGAIA), both headquartered in Abuja. This is now a major paradigm which other African regions are charged to emulate.

After A Remarkable Five Years

Nigeria has witnessed well-deserved respite, if not bliss, since the past five years corresponding with the days of intense hardwork by Dr. Demuren and the NCAA, the Ministry of Aviation, parastatals and Nigerian airlines as well as industry support organizations.

What makes the CAA the powerful engine responsible for aviation growth and development is the CAA's position as industry regulator and safeguard of ICAO Standards and Recommended Practices at State levels. The CAA as the enforcer of industry regulation and preserver of industry standards cannot be compromised with the wrong leadership. As the five-year tenure of Dr. Demuren ran out February 22, 2012, the DG CAA has been retained to carry on with the transformation of the aviation industry in Nigeria. Dr. Demuren is already faced with a mighty task of surpassing the achievements of Nigeria's aviation industry in the last five years. That is why the least that would be expected of the new DG CAA would be to improve on the safety and security level, policy standards, and public confidence, besides keeping Nigeria's flag flying very high in global civil aviation community. Above all, since the refrain in the industry in the past 5 years has been 'safety, safety, safety', it is paramount now that attention be focused also on economic regulation to buoy the performance of airlines in this regard, among others. Whether the cup is half-full or half-empty would depend on the fresh drive and delivery of the DG CAA.

However, keen industry observers believe a new phase of development has begun in Nigeria's aviation industry with the end of tenure of DG NCAA December 2005 to February 2012; and the scorecard in the course of his current stewardship would say how well Nigeria has fared from the present pedestal.

(Then comes Dana 0992 which opens a can of worms...Do you think if Demuren had not returned, he might have kept his position of a 'Saint'?)

Safe and sustainable aviation in the Africa and Indian Ocean (AFI) region.

Executive Summary

Aviation is considered a vital tool for economic development in Africa. This becomes more critical considering the level of surface transport development across the continent. It generated around 450,000 jobs and contributed more than $10 billion USD to Africa’s GDP in 2007 (ATAG)1. While air transport plays an important role in itself, its main role is to facilitate economic activity.
Unfortunately, the region has suffered a history of high airline failure rates, poor infrastructure and an accident rate that is 8 times the global average. A major challenge now facing the continent is the lack of sustainable levels of the requisite, skilled workforce at all levels. This is necessary to steer the course of both governance and industry. The global community through various government and non- governmental agencies has proffered a plethora of initiatives and interventions, designed to redress the situation. However, the successes recorded through these efforts have been marginal.

It is time Africa learns from its past mistakes and focuses on achieving safe, sustainable, reliable and efficient air travel. It must be supported by sound infrastructure and concern for the environment. All these criteria must to be strategically laid out in a detailed policy and supported by legal processes that will aid successful implementation. Governments must be transparent, accountable and guided by democratic principles. Transformational leadership should result in social and political stability that will create the suitable environment for regional economic integration. This integration will be easier to achieve if the region aligns its aviation policies and regulations to optimise the workforce available. All member States must pool resources to invest in infrastructure, aircraft acquisitions, fuel purchase- agreements and workforce training. Africa must understand that all infrastructure or equipment procured will need to be entrusted into the hands of a competent and skilled workforce if the industry is to achieve its objectives. Aviation professionals in the region must be proactive and visible. The airlines should consider strategic commercial agreements and mergers to benefit from possible cost synergies. Safety and economic benefits will accrue from having a single African sky, a fly Africa policy and one Multi-lateral Air Service Agreement between Africa and Indian Ocean region and the rest of the world.
Creating human capital takes time; lost time is irretrievable. The region is running out of both time and human capital and the competition is not waiting. 

1 The economic and social benefits of air transport 2008, Air transport action group 

Pam, D.R., (2012) Safe and sustainable aviation in the AFI region iv 

 

Conclusions and recommendations

1. Conclusions

• Economically, the continent has the market (population) and the resources to successfully run a safe and sustainable aviation industry if these are properly harnessed. It has immense natural resources much of which remain untapped except for oil and precious minerals. These two have been attracting interest and conflict due to their demand and value.

• Africa is still politically and socially divided. This is clearly exhibited by the poor implementation of YD, the diplomatic deadlock between Zimbabwe and the EU and the indecisiveness over the NATO intervention in Libya.

• Corruption is widespread with most of the proceeds invested in foreign banks to the detriment if the African economy. Sometimes the scourge is actively encouraged by multinational banks and business corporations.

• Most of Africa still handle both aviation safety information and information that will aid socio-political reformation in a reactive or bureaucratic manner (Reason, 2006). This is evident in the low level of aviation Accident Data Reporting (ADREP) buy-in and anti-corruption reporting. There is low employee and public engagement in both aviation safety and governance.

• A general lack of practical quality management is observed in most airline operations. Most airlines secure ISO 9000 series certificates but do not practice even basic fundamentals such as the Deming cycle. Airlines aim for compliance oblivious that quality assurance will guarantee both compliance and efficiency.

• Internal and external organisations (such as IATA, IFALPA, FAA, EASA, AFRAA, AFCAC and Eurocontrol, etc.) currently working in this region have similar and over lapping aims, objectives and initiatives. They have failed to co-ordinate their activities or recognise that there not enough people to implement their very many strategies.

• The region is facing an acute shortage of a qualified work force. In the words of AFCAC ‘there are endemic problems in recruiting and retaining qualified personnel in sufficient numbers with the necessary expertise to carry out their day to day regulatory and oversight functions.

• The Aviation industry in Africa is too strategic to be completely privatised and left purely to the dictates of market forces at the current stage of its development. The top airlines in Africa, Middle East and China are all government owned.

Recommendations: Governments actions

Political strategies for Synergy

African nations have to give up some level of individuality to succeed as a stronger group.
Failure to attain political synergy will mean these Countries will maintain the status of pawns in the grand game of international politics and economics. “Europe as it is envisaged in 1992 is also a potentially formidable economic superpower, but the reluctance to establish a European monetary system or sacrifice more individual national sovereignty could inhibit the full realization of this potential.”
            -Helmut Schmidt, former German chancellor (1988)
Achieving regional integration will present some tough leadership decisions. It will mean relinquishing some level of individual sovereignty on some issues for the interest of the entire group. However, when the process is successfully completed, the gains outweigh the sacrifices made.

Transformational Leadership

The notion of an African Union is essential and long overdue. The challenge is the emergence of the Leadership required to give it the momentum it must have to achieve relevance.
Leadership is a social process in which a person is able to enlist the aid of others and direct their activities to achieve a collective goal. By observing the global social changes taking place over the past decade, it is obvious that, all forms of leadership and governance that remain hierarchical and systematically authoritarian are doomed to become increasingly ineffective and engender an implosion. Leadership that will succeed in the African Union (AU) is the type that acknowledges the leadership capacity in every other member.

Transparency and accountability in governance

African governments must pass a freedom of information act across the continent to encourage transparency and accountability of public officials. This will increase the prospects for systematic reforms which could counter corruption in the region. Increased press freedom and an independent judiciary will also strengthen the fight against corruption using existing checks and balances.
Constitutional reforms should be carried out to make the leadership truly accountable. Open and frank communication results in a clearly understood, written and enforceable (legislated) document detailing the responsibilities and expectations of the people and their governments. This is close to the ideal situation when the iceberg is clearly above the water.

The perfect substitute for foreign aid

African governments should make a representation to the United Nations to have a mandate passed that compels all Countries to return the assets that have been misappropriated from Africa. These are to be repatriated back to the source country with 90 days of the complaint being made.

Establishment of a free trade Area covering the entire continent

The African Economic Community (AEC) is designed to lead to economic integration. This can only be achieved by an increase in intra-regional trade.
With this in place, Africa should at least be able to produce what it consumes. This will further strengthen regional ties and reduce escalating conflicts. Economic dependency is a strong incentive to seek peaceful resolutions and avoid serious conflicts among members. Currently, African countries trade more with their former colonist than with each other.

Fly Africa Policy

The reasons that compelled the American congress to adopt the fly America Act 1974 was to protect their industry against unfair practices and strong competition from foreign carriers. The USA has always argued that this does not amount to a government subsidy. With the current debt profiles, African economies may not afford to give direct subsidies, so this will have to suffice.
The high volume of government sponsored foreign travel within and outside the continent will improve the operating margins of African carriers and hopefully the support they need to improve both safety and efficiency.

Recommendations: Government and Industry Stakeholder actions

Clearly define African Civil Aviation Commission’s (AFCAC) role

Among all the structures currently in place, AFCAC is in the best position to play the lead role in the alignment of civil aviation policies and the harmonisation of the regions regulations. The role, scope and authority of AFCAC must be strengthened and clearly defined by the group.
Logically it should be empowered to co-ordinate all aviation activities in the AFI region including those of the partner organisations such as IATA and ICAO. It should be the nerve centre for broad based policy and strategy formulation and cannot afford to tolerate a vacuum. However, it is necessary to learn from the problems the EU encountered with National Authorities and the interpretation of harmonised regulations and avoid the pitfalls.

Improve coordination and alignment of safety strategies among partner organisations

The internal and external organisations currently working to address aviation concerns in this region have similar and over lapping aims, objectives and initiatives. There are currently over 54 ongoing aviation related initiatives being implemented across the continent. These has the regulatory staff busy attending monthly seminars and workshops to the detriment of safety and economic oversight functions. There are far too many consultants and not enough people to implement their very many strategies.
Secondly, it will be counter productive if diverging or conflicting strategies are being implemented simultaneously by different interested parties in the region. To illustrate; Thales of France recently completed airspace upgrades for two African Countries.
Nigeria had spent over $86 USD million for a 3 year contract that defaulted to eight years (2003-2011) to procure an inefficient surface radar programme for its 923,000 square kilometre airspace.
Namibia on the other hand, spent less than $14 USD million in just three years (January 2009-December 2011) and has launched a more sophisticated Wide Area Multi-lateration (WAM) surveillance system including ADS-C for its 825,000 square kilometres airspace. Obviously, Namibia made a more sensible and future-proof decision. It is understood that the buyer always has the final decision on choice, however one has to question the quality of the consultation provided by Thales to Nigeria before and during execution of the contract.

Design a ‘one size fits all’ Audit Programme

The multiplicity of similar safety audits such as IOSA and the FAA’s IASA besides the normal ICAO USOAP-CMA, SSP, SMS, audit processes that CAA’s and airlines carryout is counter-productive. A close inspection shows that 80% of the elements of these programmes are identical.
AFCAC should put in place a framework that integrates all the vital elements of these audit programmes into one comprehensive audit process that allows the CAA’s to use their lean resources on other required oversight responsibilities. 

Training and retaining skilled Personnel

Africa needs to invest in robust initial and recurrent training programmes as a mitigating measure against the risks of catastrophic events. With bigger and faster aircraft, the consequences of human failure are more far reaching now than they were a generation ago. The skills acquired 5 years ago now appear outdated in the face of technological innovations. Most times, the human element is trying to catch up with the machine. Investigations reveal that the UK has more ICAO recognised aviation training institutions than all African Countries combined. According to Boeing’s 2011 outlook, Africa will need 14,300 pilots and 19,200 engineers by 2030. That’s is, an additional 715 pilots and 960 maintenance engineers every year.
The migration of African professionals to developed Countries represents a personal decision shaped mainly by an individual’s assessment of where the best career opportunities lie. Governments can help influence this decision by improving living and working conditions. They should also co-operate with member States and offer realistic prospects for secure and rewarding professional careers in Africa.

Active participation by Professionals

The professional aviation bodies like IFALPA, IFATCA, Engineers International (EI), etc., should be more visible and vocal in industry circles.
Aviation professionals and the general citizenry must support civil society organisations throughout the region in becoming active and outspoken concerning governance issues and corruption.

Joint investments in aviation infrastructure

African nations were urged to co-operate with each other on major infrastructure projects. There is strength in working collectively. Infrastructure projects can stimulate the economy and provide employment, while green energy projects can help combat climate change. The African aviation environment is affected by factors all of which must be appropriately managed on a regional scope to effect any significant change.
Historical evidence abounds that the impressive strides made by individual Countries like South Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, Kenya, e.t.c., within the AFI region in achieving global safety and technological standards have been eclipsed by the failures of their proximate neighbours. Aviation infrastructure is capital intensive to produce and maintain because of the high standards of safety required.

Pooling of resources to enhance utilisation of existing structures

Africa needs a comprehensive strategy for working in concert. A strategy that will integrate identifying potential and existing skills among member States.
Then offer encouragement and support by providing large-scale, long-term patronage. The ultimate objective is building and refining of the skill sets within the continent.
The AU could produce a framework that gives member States opportunities to become proficient in certain fields and activities within a 15-20 year period. This comprehensive approach will not be restricted to aviation alone.
For example the entire continent could mandate that from 2015 to 2030 all member states will encourage, procure from and rely on:
 South Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt and Kenya for all aviation training and maintenance requirements.
 Algeria, Nigeria, Libya Ghana and Angola for oil and gas, solid minerals and power generation requirements.
 Namibia, Burundi, Zimbabwe and Tanzania for agricultural expertise, tourism and shipping requirements.

Africa must plan and aim to exploit synergies, gain economies of scale and scope, improving production processes with practice. So that in the long-term, the controlling instruments still remain on the African continent. 
The current initiative of setting up Regional Safety Oversight Organization (RSOO) and sharing the services of qualified aviation safety inspectors under the AFI-CIS is a welcome development.

Full implementation of the Yamoussoukro decision (YD)

It is a major drawback that 10 member nations have not yet signed the YD. However, all signatories of the Abuja treaty of 12th May 1994 are automatically bound to implement the YD. The expeditious implementation of YD is hindered because articles in trade agreements currently existing between African nations and their OECD donors indirectly discourage regional integration. African leaders should realise by now that the only real chance Africa has at sustainable development is regional synergy.

Single Air Service agreement between the AFI region and the rest of the world.

Produce a framework to review and terminate all existing individual Bi-lateral Air Service Agreements (BASA) and aim to establish a single Air service Agreement between Africa and the rest of the world.
The EU has emerged with EASA taking over safety responsibilities from the National Aviation Authorities (NAA).
Plans are being concluded to negotiate future air service agreements with the EU represented as a single unit, thus making the group formidable. Africa should form a united front to negotiate air service agreements. This will provide positive macro-economic effects for the region.

The Future: liberalised Consolidation

African airlines should immediately embark on strategic review of their business models to aid in choice of strategic options.
They should seriously consider strategic mergers and acquisitions to facilitate access to intangible assets such airport slots, new markets and increased corporate versatility.
A lesson from 2 of the major EU carriers that dominate African aviation.
A signal that the era of cross-border mergers has arrived is the case of British Airways (BA) and Iberia; the flag carriers of two European Countries. The two airlines completed their merger on the 21st January 2011 and evolved into the International Airlines consolidated Group (IAG).
The group has recently acquired British Midlands International (BMI) and its priced slots at Heathrow airport from Lufthansa. IAG is still working towards a closer union with American Airlines. 
Lufthansa currently owns 13% of Luxair, 19% of JetBlue, 25% of Jade cargo (China), and 100% of German wings, Eurowings, Swiss International Air Lines, Brussels, Lufthansa cargo, Lufthansa City line, Austrian airlines and Lufthansa Italia. It is expedient to link strategy formulation and implementation into one efficient and seamless process.
In global business, the competitive advantage of nations plays a significant role in defining the competitive advantage of their carriers. As illustrated above, governments play active roles in strategic industries like aviation and nuclear power to further their economic interests. Countries are now willing to make policy adjustments in the interest of macro-economic benefits. Though this interference results in a distortion of the natural balance of market forces, it remains part of global economic realities.
This is Africa’s moment.

Full version can be found at http://www.scribd.com/doc/83135213/Safe-and-sustainable-aviation-in-Africa-Alignment-of-Policies-Regulations-and-Resources.

(for a free soft copy email:  drpam007@gmail.com)

Red October: The real aviation invasion begins

Facing the Competition.....

FASTJET and furious….

Today FastJet said it will lease at least five Airbus A319 in the next six months and up to 15 within a year. Rubicon’s chief executive Ed Winter, who previously worked at British Airways’ budget offshoot Go, said: “The decision to launch with the Airbus A319 enables us to expand rapidly [with] passenger numbers doubling from current levels within six months.”

Fastjet plans to commence commercial flight operations in October 2012.

It is envisaged that Fastjet is the initiation of a $500 milion investment strategy into Africa’s aviation industry which is valued annually at $56 billion (£35.7 billion) but is known for a poor safety record and unreliability. To this end, the European Union (EU) has blacklisted 279 carriers from 21 countries -- and 14 of those countries are African. These blacklisted African  airlines are technically out of the game as far as the European market is concerned, but the European carrier still have full access to the perilous African markets; how quaint?

With a population of 158 million people, Nigeria is the largest country in Africa and accounts for 47 percent of West Africa’s population. It is also the biggest oil exporter in Africa, with the largest natural gas reserves in the continent. With these large reserves of human and natural resources, Nigeria is poised to build a prosperous economy, significantly reduce poverty, and provide health, education and infrastructure services to its population needs. The World bank estimates that Nigeria will overtake south Africa and become Africa’s largest economy by 2018. The revised forecast for Nigeria indicates an average GDP growth of 5.6% for the next 20 years.

Airbus forecasts total passenger traffic in Africa will grow at an average yearly rate

of 5.7% between 2010 and 2030, well above the 4.8 per cent world average growth rate

and expects to deliver more than 1,100 new passenger aircraft, 4% of world deliveries, in the next 20 years to satisfy growing demand. Seven of the top 10 fastest growing global economies are now in Africa with consumer spending for the continent forecast to reach

US$1.6 trillion by 2020.

The McKinsey report of June 2010 forecast that 128 million households in Africa are expected to have discretionary income to spend by 2020, while 50% of Africans are expected to live in cities by the same date with urban jobs bringing rising incomes. The McKinsey report concluded that today the rate of return on foreign investment in Africa is higher than in any other developing region and that early entry into African economies provides opportunities to create markets, establish brands, shape industry structure, influence consumer preferences and establish long-term relationships.

This is a credible investors report designed to exploit the following:

Africa's high traffic growth buliding on economic performance.

African consumer spending on things Africa does not produce and should not be encouraged to produce but rather import from the predominantly European trading partners like aviation travel.

The high return on investments? And I was of the impression that Africa is accused of having very high operating cost as far as aviation is concerned? Could the high operating cost be caused by the fact that:

• African airlines are charged excessively more by European/ American leasing and insurance companies more for the obvious reasons..stifle the competition? Thank goodness for the Cape Town convention of 2005; which unfortunately is not been used effectively by African governments and aviation administrators.

• African airlines are often constrained by rigidly exploitative lease agreements to contract the maintenance of the leased aeroplanes to MRO's domiciled or belonging to the same European or American corporations; leading to capital flight and loss of skills for the MRO's on the continent?

A pertinent question that betrays the euphoria of access to cheaper air travel is what are the medium and long term implications of the entrance of fast jet portend for the West African sub-region?

Will there be any investment is infrastructure or is this just a gold-rush for the huge market the burgeoning middle class here will create?

What is the percentage of the share holding domiciled on the African continent?

Will there be any transfer of skills or is the age old master-servant relationship were capital flight continues as long people are moved from A to B?

Asking these questions is more sarcasm than truth because Europe is in a recession and they're desperately looking for every niche that can be exploited. As a result, we believe it is most likely that:

• The aircraft will be registered and insured in the EU because it'll be cheaper.
• Maintenance will carried out in EU.
• Pilot and engineers training will be carried out in EU.
• About 70% of the 240 pilots, numerous maintenance personnel and top level management will be expatriates from EU.
• 100% of the profits will be repatraited back to the EU because they can need to pay shareholders.

Without mincing words, this was the competition my old post was referring to, the one that sees Africa as a market to be plundered and abandoned because Africans have allowed it to be used as such. This can be stemmed by diligent and proactive scrutiny of all MOU and their impact on the development of the African aviation industry. The first casualties of fastjet will most likely be the sleazy giant of Africa. If Nigeria fails to act very carefully but quickly, it may not be five years before we see the extinction of it's current bickering crowd of mostly sole proprietor-type half baked operators.

Dont say I did'nt warn you.

What the Minister and NCAA must do if the Aviation industry is to survive the next five years

Is the Sun about to set for Nigerian Aviation?

The Nigerian aviation industry is underestimating the nature of the competition it will face from foreign carriers determined to carve a niche in the 4.4% average gdp (gross domestic product) growth estimated for the country in the next 40 years. Already the country presents the second highest rpk (revenue passenger Kilometer) in the continent. Traffic between Africa and the EU has consistently accounted for over 60% of all aviation activity on the African continent. Foreign carriers currently dominate the international traffic arena, this now confines the local industry to the national and regional traffic, but that is also about to change unless both African regulators and the airlines recognise the impending threat. As at April 2012, only Arik services’ any international routes outside Africa and consistently at a horrible loss even the Lagos-London route; one of the most profitable routes on earth.

On the continental level, there are certain affiliations that at best weaken Africa's chances of a multilateral plan by airlines and governments to guard against losing strategic control of their aviation sectors.

For a start, North African carriers have a stronger bond and a greater sense of loyalty with the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) than with Sub-Saharan Africa. Emirates, Etihad and Qatar are some of the Middle EAst  carriers that are presenting serious competition to African carriers.

Secondly, most of the strong carriers in Africa are government owned who some level of protection as well as access to national funds. Most of them also enjoy the benefits of being IATA members. However, within IATA itself African carriers account for less than 3 percent of it's activities and earnings.

Thirdly, though both camps (MENA and Government owned carriers) are members of AFRAA (African Airlines Association), which really just serves as a backup plan for them, as AFRAA has only 40 members out of the over 190 registered airlines in Africa.

Fourthly, the ideal platform for a renaissance of African Aviation; AFCAC (African civil aviation commission) an arm of the African Union (AU) has not been able to provide the leadership and assert it's legitimacy in recent events. Both AFCAC and the AU need to hone their diplomatic skills in charting a course that will see the Pan-African vision become a reality.

Finally, ICAO the ever present enduring arm of the UN (United Nations) lacks both the funding and the legitimacy to engender the high level political co-ordination needed to harness the synergy within the 54 African member states. I have to mention that IATA has been doing some impressive work to enhance aviation safety on the continent. A win-win for them as they are able to both fortify and protect the interest of their 240 plus global members on the continent as well as support the quest for safer African skies.

Unless the African Ministers of Transport/Aviation are able to get a grip on reality and move swiftly, they should expect a more vindictive blacklist from the EU. Which will soon Followed by increased co-operation among the foreign carriers (based on their IATA alliance memberships); a sort of re-partitioning of the African aviation market, which will leave Africa's strong carriers most of which are IATA members namely; South African Airlines, Ethiopian, Kenya Airways, Egypt Air, Royal air Maroc, Tunisair, etc, in a quandary.

On the Nigerian scene, the local airlines are under the illusion that if they can undermine each other, they will eliminate the competition, increase market share and control the (local) market. Unfortunately, this will only weaken the entire group and make it easier for the real competition (coming soon) to waltz in without encountering any real resistance. The regulator (NCAA) has been deluded in thinking that by providing weak economic regulation, it is giving the airlines some respite and maybe a lifeline. Sadly, it is unwittingly delivering them the hangman's noose. News of their poor credit history and lack of financial discipline (tolerated by the NCAA) spreads beyond national borders and jeopardises the reputation of the whole group (Country) in international circles. This becomes a real hindrance in taking advantage of the Cape Town convention and securing favourable lease and insurance conditions. It breeds complacency among the operators and leaves them operating without robust business plans or financial discipline. The result is the obvious low life expectancy and high failure rates of airlines in the Country.

The major threat will present itself in the guise of a private-public-partnership (PPP) where the funds and technical partner will originate from foreign entities. This is backed the usual excuse that it is a requirement to help Africa’s carriers secure favourable insurance premiums, maintenance contracts and unquestionable training standards. If the management control and MOU are not scrupulously checked against violating bi-laterals, cabotage or both, these new regional entrants will consummate strong commercial agreements with European and/or Middle East carriers (who currently have nearly 70% share of the international traffic) to provide feeder-traffic. The local populace will be lured with new improved loyalty programmes. The regional market that is currently in the hands of the local industry will become dominated by external majors through this new unguarded regional PPP.

If the NCAA and the Nigerian Government (Aviation Ministry) have any inkling of perception they should:

1.     Immediately commence the required level of economic regulation and shut down any operators that are not able to operate within the financial guidelines.

2.     Give the local industry 90 days to come up with sensible strategic consolidation options that will see the Nigerian aviation industry emerge with between 3 to 5 formidable airlines.

3.    Revisit and assess the current invasion of airports by a plethora of private jets to ascertain their benefits or otherwise to the local industry and the nations security.

Sometimes people forget that Kenya Airways is still 26% owned by KLM and Comair in South Africa is a Franchise of British airways. Then you will not wonder why the profits are repatriated outside the African continent rather than invested in the much-needed infrastructure. A word of caution about our dear Chinese investors; they know how to play hardball even when they are smiling.

In the current economic environment, monopoly of the Africa's international traffic is not enough. This time, it may start "Easy"(pun intended) but it is going to mutate into total local takeover, with a sleight of hand. Watch this space. To be precise, Stelios and the Rubicon group have bought over Fly540; a budding East African low cost carrier and they intend to create a low cost carrier based in Accra Ghana. Currently Nigeria provides over 65% of aviation traffic in the West African sub-region