It is heart warming to see the Federal
government is not wasting time in investigating the state of the industry.
There have been some comments as to the impact of economic regulation on safety
and sustainability of the aviation industry. I therefore feel compelled to air
my thoughts on that. I intend to limit my contribution to the airline
operators.
One of the bones I have to pick with the NCAA is their tactics of 'consistently weak economic regulation'. The first part involves ignoring obvious signs that airlines are facing serious cash flow problems. Usually evidenced by a host of abnormalities such as; (1) staff salaries delayed for extensive periods, (2) flights delayed because the 90 day credit limit with fuel vendors is breached and fuel has to be purchased by cash from ticket sales after passengers have boarded (3) NAMA refusing to clear the aircraft to depart because navigation/landing/parking fees have not been settled when due, (4) aircraft interior furnishings are falling apart, etc. These are not directly unsafe, but it makes you wonder about the secondary effect of these signs. And also, What else has been concealed by the operators? How much of non-mandatory training has been sliced off the books? How many time expired components are still on the plane simply because they are still functioning? Do the planes really depart with the required IFR minimum fuel reserves so they can hold when weather conditions suddenly deteriorate or they'll just have to try and land in the thunderstorm and windshear because they did'nt have the extra fuel required for holding or diversion? Are the staff who have'nt been paid really performing their jobs optimally or they are hungry, emotionally distracted and worried about lack of food, unpaid school fees, expired rents, etc.? I insist that these will invariably have a negative effect on safety standards and should not be tolerated within the industry. Is the NCAA so blind or am I just being paranoid?
The second part involves the abuse of discretion to grant extensions to airlines requesting to defer periodic maintenance processes. This should only be granted in extraneous circumstances. And when it is deemed necessary, let it published on the NCAA's website so that both the public and professionals can know and if necessary challenge any inconsistencies in the process. These two points have lulled our airline operators into a sense of false security. The recapitalisation of 2007 has not helped as it just weeded the very bad players out, leaving just the “bad players”and a few good ones in the game. These are now becoming "very bad" themselves. I'm shocked that the unscrupulous "Bellview" has been allowed to mutate and return as "First Nation". What an insult to common sense. Knowing some Bellview staff are still being owed their last six months salaries for over 2 years! How insensitive of the NCAA to allow people like Odukoya to present themselves into the limelight without making amends for his past misdemeanours. I hear they have unsettled debts at Heathrow airport as well. Given the opportunity, I'll give 90 days to the current 16 airlines and ask them to confer and merge themselves into between 3 to 5 airlines. These must have clear business plans, defined business models and robust quality management systems in place. At which we'll do everything possible to support them including tax breaks, duty free on consumables, zero interest loans and loan guarantees with aircraft manufacturers to facilitate procurement of new equipment and realistic lease/maintenance contracts. The government can support the aviation development without throwing money at the airlines and this is what I want to prove. Giving them money I believe will just encourage fiddling and bribing to continue unabated.
For those who are not aware, Nigeria’s population is 18% (nearly 1/5) that of the entire African continent and currently has the second highest revenue passenger kilometer (RPK) second only to South Africa in the continent. Nigerian airlines present 60% of commercial aviation activity in West Africa for now. In 2018, we’ll be the largest economy in Africa. The major advantage we have is that our GDP is predicted to grow at an average of 4.4% for the next 20years. Even China will have to pay attention to our potential.
Two strategies that I believe will cut down the operating cost of our local airlines by about 15% are:
Grant the airlines under the aegis of something more sensible than the AON, the license to import the Jet A1 and Avgas required by the industry stakeholders to be sold to all operators at a non-profit pricing. I’m not dreaming this up; the indian airline industry has tried that, though a bit too late for some of their operators.
I’ll facilitate a private sector initiative to setup a type rating training organicity (TRTO), in partnership with reputable foreign partners comprising of three full flight simulators (FFS) of the most popular type of commercial jet aircraft operating in the west African sub region. Namely B737 classic, B737 NG and A320 series. This will either be cited in Lagos, Abuja or the Nigerian college of aviation Zaria. If this is accomplished, the facility the first of its type in the whole of West Africa. It will serve the following purposes:
(1) Save 65% of the US$16.3Million Nigerian airlines spend yearly on pilot recurrent simulator training overseas to pay for visas, flight tickets, hotel accommodation, subsistence allowances, etc. The actual simulator training required only 35% of the total amount spent.
(2) Provide pilot training service other operators in West Africa and Africa at large.
(3) Provide easy access for type ratings to aspiring pilots in the entire West African sub-region. who would not be able to afford international travel fares, housing, subsistence, etc to get a commercial jet type rating.
(4) Be a source of revenue for the Country; increase our GDP.
(5) Acquire new skill sets for the aviation industry in the area of full service TRTO operation.
(6) Increase the chances of Africa meeting Boeing’s predicted requirement of an extra 715 pilots per year in order to cope with its demand for pilots in 2030.
For what its worth, I believe the Minister will continue on the right path. Let's just hope she'll have the foresight to recognise good advice when she finds it.
There are things I wished I had done 13yrs ago. We probably would not have been in this mess. The current model with which the NCAA is regulating both safety and the economics of the industry is unsustainable and will result in us losing strategic control of this vital tool for Nigeria's economic development. This sounds like a voice crying out in the wilderness, the real question is who is listening?. However, it is true that even the most spectacular musical rendition amounts to nothing, when the audience is deaf.
One of the bones I have to pick with the NCAA is their tactics of 'consistently weak economic regulation'. The first part involves ignoring obvious signs that airlines are facing serious cash flow problems. Usually evidenced by a host of abnormalities such as; (1) staff salaries delayed for extensive periods, (2) flights delayed because the 90 day credit limit with fuel vendors is breached and fuel has to be purchased by cash from ticket sales after passengers have boarded (3) NAMA refusing to clear the aircraft to depart because navigation/landing/parking fees have not been settled when due, (4) aircraft interior furnishings are falling apart, etc. These are not directly unsafe, but it makes you wonder about the secondary effect of these signs. And also, What else has been concealed by the operators? How much of non-mandatory training has been sliced off the books? How many time expired components are still on the plane simply because they are still functioning? Do the planes really depart with the required IFR minimum fuel reserves so they can hold when weather conditions suddenly deteriorate or they'll just have to try and land in the thunderstorm and windshear because they did'nt have the extra fuel required for holding or diversion? Are the staff who have'nt been paid really performing their jobs optimally or they are hungry, emotionally distracted and worried about lack of food, unpaid school fees, expired rents, etc.? I insist that these will invariably have a negative effect on safety standards and should not be tolerated within the industry. Is the NCAA so blind or am I just being paranoid?
The second part involves the abuse of discretion to grant extensions to airlines requesting to defer periodic maintenance processes. This should only be granted in extraneous circumstances. And when it is deemed necessary, let it published on the NCAA's website so that both the public and professionals can know and if necessary challenge any inconsistencies in the process. These two points have lulled our airline operators into a sense of false security. The recapitalisation of 2007 has not helped as it just weeded the very bad players out, leaving just the “bad players”and a few good ones in the game. These are now becoming "very bad" themselves. I'm shocked that the unscrupulous "Bellview" has been allowed to mutate and return as "First Nation". What an insult to common sense. Knowing some Bellview staff are still being owed their last six months salaries for over 2 years! How insensitive of the NCAA to allow people like Odukoya to present themselves into the limelight without making amends for his past misdemeanours. I hear they have unsettled debts at Heathrow airport as well. Given the opportunity, I'll give 90 days to the current 16 airlines and ask them to confer and merge themselves into between 3 to 5 airlines. These must have clear business plans, defined business models and robust quality management systems in place. At which we'll do everything possible to support them including tax breaks, duty free on consumables, zero interest loans and loan guarantees with aircraft manufacturers to facilitate procurement of new equipment and realistic lease/maintenance contracts. The government can support the aviation development without throwing money at the airlines and this is what I want to prove. Giving them money I believe will just encourage fiddling and bribing to continue unabated.
For those who are not aware, Nigeria’s population is 18% (nearly 1/5) that of the entire African continent and currently has the second highest revenue passenger kilometer (RPK) second only to South Africa in the continent. Nigerian airlines present 60% of commercial aviation activity in West Africa for now. In 2018, we’ll be the largest economy in Africa. The major advantage we have is that our GDP is predicted to grow at an average of 4.4% for the next 20years. Even China will have to pay attention to our potential.
Two strategies that I believe will cut down the operating cost of our local airlines by about 15% are:
Grant the airlines under the aegis of something more sensible than the AON, the license to import the Jet A1 and Avgas required by the industry stakeholders to be sold to all operators at a non-profit pricing. I’m not dreaming this up; the indian airline industry has tried that, though a bit too late for some of their operators.
I’ll facilitate a private sector initiative to setup a type rating training organicity (TRTO), in partnership with reputable foreign partners comprising of three full flight simulators (FFS) of the most popular type of commercial jet aircraft operating in the west African sub region. Namely B737 classic, B737 NG and A320 series. This will either be cited in Lagos, Abuja or the Nigerian college of aviation Zaria. If this is accomplished, the facility the first of its type in the whole of West Africa. It will serve the following purposes:
(1) Save 65% of the US$16.3Million Nigerian airlines spend yearly on pilot recurrent simulator training overseas to pay for visas, flight tickets, hotel accommodation, subsistence allowances, etc. The actual simulator training required only 35% of the total amount spent.
(2) Provide pilot training service other operators in West Africa and Africa at large.
(3) Provide easy access for type ratings to aspiring pilots in the entire West African sub-region. who would not be able to afford international travel fares, housing, subsistence, etc to get a commercial jet type rating.
(4) Be a source of revenue for the Country; increase our GDP.
(5) Acquire new skill sets for the aviation industry in the area of full service TRTO operation.
(6) Increase the chances of Africa meeting Boeing’s predicted requirement of an extra 715 pilots per year in order to cope with its demand for pilots in 2030.
For what its worth, I believe the Minister will continue on the right path. Let's just hope she'll have the foresight to recognise good advice when she finds it.
There are things I wished I had done 13yrs ago. We probably would not have been in this mess. The current model with which the NCAA is regulating both safety and the economics of the industry is unsustainable and will result in us losing strategic control of this vital tool for Nigeria's economic development. This sounds like a voice crying out in the wilderness, the real question is who is listening?. However, it is true that even the most spectacular musical rendition amounts to nothing, when the audience is deaf.
