Safe and sustainable aviation in the Africa and Indian Ocean (AFI) region.

Executive Summary

Aviation is considered a vital tool for economic development in Africa. This becomes more critical considering the level of surface transport development across the continent. It generated around 450,000 jobs and contributed more than $10 billion USD to Africa’s GDP in 2007 (ATAG)1. While air transport plays an important role in itself, its main role is to facilitate economic activity.
Unfortunately, the region has suffered a history of high airline failure rates, poor infrastructure and an accident rate that is 8 times the global average. A major challenge now facing the continent is the lack of sustainable levels of the requisite, skilled workforce at all levels. This is necessary to steer the course of both governance and industry. The global community through various government and non- governmental agencies has proffered a plethora of initiatives and interventions, designed to redress the situation. However, the successes recorded through these efforts have been marginal.

It is time Africa learns from its past mistakes and focuses on achieving safe, sustainable, reliable and efficient air travel. It must be supported by sound infrastructure and concern for the environment. All these criteria must to be strategically laid out in a detailed policy and supported by legal processes that will aid successful implementation. Governments must be transparent, accountable and guided by democratic principles. Transformational leadership should result in social and political stability that will create the suitable environment for regional economic integration. This integration will be easier to achieve if the region aligns its aviation policies and regulations to optimise the workforce available. All member States must pool resources to invest in infrastructure, aircraft acquisitions, fuel purchase- agreements and workforce training. Africa must understand that all infrastructure or equipment procured will need to be entrusted into the hands of a competent and skilled workforce if the industry is to achieve its objectives. Aviation professionals in the region must be proactive and visible. The airlines should consider strategic commercial agreements and mergers to benefit from possible cost synergies. Safety and economic benefits will accrue from having a single African sky, a fly Africa policy and one Multi-lateral Air Service Agreement between Africa and Indian Ocean region and the rest of the world.
Creating human capital takes time; lost time is irretrievable. The region is running out of both time and human capital and the competition is not waiting. 

1 The economic and social benefits of air transport 2008, Air transport action group 

Pam, D.R., (2012) Safe and sustainable aviation in the AFI region iv 

 

Conclusions and recommendations

1. Conclusions

• Economically, the continent has the market (population) and the resources to successfully run a safe and sustainable aviation industry if these are properly harnessed. It has immense natural resources much of which remain untapped except for oil and precious minerals. These two have been attracting interest and conflict due to their demand and value.

• Africa is still politically and socially divided. This is clearly exhibited by the poor implementation of YD, the diplomatic deadlock between Zimbabwe and the EU and the indecisiveness over the NATO intervention in Libya.

• Corruption is widespread with most of the proceeds invested in foreign banks to the detriment if the African economy. Sometimes the scourge is actively encouraged by multinational banks and business corporations.

• Most of Africa still handle both aviation safety information and information that will aid socio-political reformation in a reactive or bureaucratic manner (Reason, 2006). This is evident in the low level of aviation Accident Data Reporting (ADREP) buy-in and anti-corruption reporting. There is low employee and public engagement in both aviation safety and governance.

• A general lack of practical quality management is observed in most airline operations. Most airlines secure ISO 9000 series certificates but do not practice even basic fundamentals such as the Deming cycle. Airlines aim for compliance oblivious that quality assurance will guarantee both compliance and efficiency.

• Internal and external organisations (such as IATA, IFALPA, FAA, EASA, AFRAA, AFCAC and Eurocontrol, etc.) currently working in this region have similar and over lapping aims, objectives and initiatives. They have failed to co-ordinate their activities or recognise that there not enough people to implement their very many strategies.

• The region is facing an acute shortage of a qualified work force. In the words of AFCAC ‘there are endemic problems in recruiting and retaining qualified personnel in sufficient numbers with the necessary expertise to carry out their day to day regulatory and oversight functions.

• The Aviation industry in Africa is too strategic to be completely privatised and left purely to the dictates of market forces at the current stage of its development. The top airlines in Africa, Middle East and China are all government owned.

Recommendations: Governments actions

Political strategies for Synergy

African nations have to give up some level of individuality to succeed as a stronger group.
Failure to attain political synergy will mean these Countries will maintain the status of pawns in the grand game of international politics and economics. “Europe as it is envisaged in 1992 is also a potentially formidable economic superpower, but the reluctance to establish a European monetary system or sacrifice more individual national sovereignty could inhibit the full realization of this potential.”
            -Helmut Schmidt, former German chancellor (1988)
Achieving regional integration will present some tough leadership decisions. It will mean relinquishing some level of individual sovereignty on some issues for the interest of the entire group. However, when the process is successfully completed, the gains outweigh the sacrifices made.

Transformational Leadership

The notion of an African Union is essential and long overdue. The challenge is the emergence of the Leadership required to give it the momentum it must have to achieve relevance.
Leadership is a social process in which a person is able to enlist the aid of others and direct their activities to achieve a collective goal. By observing the global social changes taking place over the past decade, it is obvious that, all forms of leadership and governance that remain hierarchical and systematically authoritarian are doomed to become increasingly ineffective and engender an implosion. Leadership that will succeed in the African Union (AU) is the type that acknowledges the leadership capacity in every other member.

Transparency and accountability in governance

African governments must pass a freedom of information act across the continent to encourage transparency and accountability of public officials. This will increase the prospects for systematic reforms which could counter corruption in the region. Increased press freedom and an independent judiciary will also strengthen the fight against corruption using existing checks and balances.
Constitutional reforms should be carried out to make the leadership truly accountable. Open and frank communication results in a clearly understood, written and enforceable (legislated) document detailing the responsibilities and expectations of the people and their governments. This is close to the ideal situation when the iceberg is clearly above the water.

The perfect substitute for foreign aid

African governments should make a representation to the United Nations to have a mandate passed that compels all Countries to return the assets that have been misappropriated from Africa. These are to be repatriated back to the source country with 90 days of the complaint being made.

Establishment of a free trade Area covering the entire continent

The African Economic Community (AEC) is designed to lead to economic integration. This can only be achieved by an increase in intra-regional trade.
With this in place, Africa should at least be able to produce what it consumes. This will further strengthen regional ties and reduce escalating conflicts. Economic dependency is a strong incentive to seek peaceful resolutions and avoid serious conflicts among members. Currently, African countries trade more with their former colonist than with each other.

Fly Africa Policy

The reasons that compelled the American congress to adopt the fly America Act 1974 was to protect their industry against unfair practices and strong competition from foreign carriers. The USA has always argued that this does not amount to a government subsidy. With the current debt profiles, African economies may not afford to give direct subsidies, so this will have to suffice.
The high volume of government sponsored foreign travel within and outside the continent will improve the operating margins of African carriers and hopefully the support they need to improve both safety and efficiency.

Recommendations: Government and Industry Stakeholder actions

Clearly define African Civil Aviation Commission’s (AFCAC) role

Among all the structures currently in place, AFCAC is in the best position to play the lead role in the alignment of civil aviation policies and the harmonisation of the regions regulations. The role, scope and authority of AFCAC must be strengthened and clearly defined by the group.
Logically it should be empowered to co-ordinate all aviation activities in the AFI region including those of the partner organisations such as IATA and ICAO. It should be the nerve centre for broad based policy and strategy formulation and cannot afford to tolerate a vacuum. However, it is necessary to learn from the problems the EU encountered with National Authorities and the interpretation of harmonised regulations and avoid the pitfalls.

Improve coordination and alignment of safety strategies among partner organisations

The internal and external organisations currently working to address aviation concerns in this region have similar and over lapping aims, objectives and initiatives. There are currently over 54 ongoing aviation related initiatives being implemented across the continent. These has the regulatory staff busy attending monthly seminars and workshops to the detriment of safety and economic oversight functions. There are far too many consultants and not enough people to implement their very many strategies.
Secondly, it will be counter productive if diverging or conflicting strategies are being implemented simultaneously by different interested parties in the region. To illustrate; Thales of France recently completed airspace upgrades for two African Countries.
Nigeria had spent over $86 USD million for a 3 year contract that defaulted to eight years (2003-2011) to procure an inefficient surface radar programme for its 923,000 square kilometre airspace.
Namibia on the other hand, spent less than $14 USD million in just three years (January 2009-December 2011) and has launched a more sophisticated Wide Area Multi-lateration (WAM) surveillance system including ADS-C for its 825,000 square kilometres airspace. Obviously, Namibia made a more sensible and future-proof decision. It is understood that the buyer always has the final decision on choice, however one has to question the quality of the consultation provided by Thales to Nigeria before and during execution of the contract.

Design a ‘one size fits all’ Audit Programme

The multiplicity of similar safety audits such as IOSA and the FAA’s IASA besides the normal ICAO USOAP-CMA, SSP, SMS, audit processes that CAA’s and airlines carryout is counter-productive. A close inspection shows that 80% of the elements of these programmes are identical.
AFCAC should put in place a framework that integrates all the vital elements of these audit programmes into one comprehensive audit process that allows the CAA’s to use their lean resources on other required oversight responsibilities. 

Training and retaining skilled Personnel

Africa needs to invest in robust initial and recurrent training programmes as a mitigating measure against the risks of catastrophic events. With bigger and faster aircraft, the consequences of human failure are more far reaching now than they were a generation ago. The skills acquired 5 years ago now appear outdated in the face of technological innovations. Most times, the human element is trying to catch up with the machine. Investigations reveal that the UK has more ICAO recognised aviation training institutions than all African Countries combined. According to Boeing’s 2011 outlook, Africa will need 14,300 pilots and 19,200 engineers by 2030. That’s is, an additional 715 pilots and 960 maintenance engineers every year.
The migration of African professionals to developed Countries represents a personal decision shaped mainly by an individual’s assessment of where the best career opportunities lie. Governments can help influence this decision by improving living and working conditions. They should also co-operate with member States and offer realistic prospects for secure and rewarding professional careers in Africa.

Active participation by Professionals

The professional aviation bodies like IFALPA, IFATCA, Engineers International (EI), etc., should be more visible and vocal in industry circles.
Aviation professionals and the general citizenry must support civil society organisations throughout the region in becoming active and outspoken concerning governance issues and corruption.

Joint investments in aviation infrastructure

African nations were urged to co-operate with each other on major infrastructure projects. There is strength in working collectively. Infrastructure projects can stimulate the economy and provide employment, while green energy projects can help combat climate change. The African aviation environment is affected by factors all of which must be appropriately managed on a regional scope to effect any significant change.
Historical evidence abounds that the impressive strides made by individual Countries like South Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, Kenya, e.t.c., within the AFI region in achieving global safety and technological standards have been eclipsed by the failures of their proximate neighbours. Aviation infrastructure is capital intensive to produce and maintain because of the high standards of safety required.

Pooling of resources to enhance utilisation of existing structures

Africa needs a comprehensive strategy for working in concert. A strategy that will integrate identifying potential and existing skills among member States.
Then offer encouragement and support by providing large-scale, long-term patronage. The ultimate objective is building and refining of the skill sets within the continent.
The AU could produce a framework that gives member States opportunities to become proficient in certain fields and activities within a 15-20 year period. This comprehensive approach will not be restricted to aviation alone.
For example the entire continent could mandate that from 2015 to 2030 all member states will encourage, procure from and rely on:
 South Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt and Kenya for all aviation training and maintenance requirements.
 Algeria, Nigeria, Libya Ghana and Angola for oil and gas, solid minerals and power generation requirements.
 Namibia, Burundi, Zimbabwe and Tanzania for agricultural expertise, tourism and shipping requirements.

Africa must plan and aim to exploit synergies, gain economies of scale and scope, improving production processes with practice. So that in the long-term, the controlling instruments still remain on the African continent. 
The current initiative of setting up Regional Safety Oversight Organization (RSOO) and sharing the services of qualified aviation safety inspectors under the AFI-CIS is a welcome development.

Full implementation of the Yamoussoukro decision (YD)

It is a major drawback that 10 member nations have not yet signed the YD. However, all signatories of the Abuja treaty of 12th May 1994 are automatically bound to implement the YD. The expeditious implementation of YD is hindered because articles in trade agreements currently existing between African nations and their OECD donors indirectly discourage regional integration. African leaders should realise by now that the only real chance Africa has at sustainable development is regional synergy.

Single Air Service agreement between the AFI region and the rest of the world.

Produce a framework to review and terminate all existing individual Bi-lateral Air Service Agreements (BASA) and aim to establish a single Air service Agreement between Africa and the rest of the world.
The EU has emerged with EASA taking over safety responsibilities from the National Aviation Authorities (NAA).
Plans are being concluded to negotiate future air service agreements with the EU represented as a single unit, thus making the group formidable. Africa should form a united front to negotiate air service agreements. This will provide positive macro-economic effects for the region.

The Future: liberalised Consolidation

African airlines should immediately embark on strategic review of their business models to aid in choice of strategic options.
They should seriously consider strategic mergers and acquisitions to facilitate access to intangible assets such airport slots, new markets and increased corporate versatility.
A lesson from 2 of the major EU carriers that dominate African aviation.
A signal that the era of cross-border mergers has arrived is the case of British Airways (BA) and Iberia; the flag carriers of two European Countries. The two airlines completed their merger on the 21st January 2011 and evolved into the International Airlines consolidated Group (IAG).
The group has recently acquired British Midlands International (BMI) and its priced slots at Heathrow airport from Lufthansa. IAG is still working towards a closer union with American Airlines. 
Lufthansa currently owns 13% of Luxair, 19% of JetBlue, 25% of Jade cargo (China), and 100% of German wings, Eurowings, Swiss International Air Lines, Brussels, Lufthansa cargo, Lufthansa City line, Austrian airlines and Lufthansa Italia. It is expedient to link strategy formulation and implementation into one efficient and seamless process.
In global business, the competitive advantage of nations plays a significant role in defining the competitive advantage of their carriers. As illustrated above, governments play active roles in strategic industries like aviation and nuclear power to further their economic interests. Countries are now willing to make policy adjustments in the interest of macro-economic benefits. Though this interference results in a distortion of the natural balance of market forces, it remains part of global economic realities.
This is Africa’s moment.

Full version can be found at http://www.scribd.com/doc/83135213/Safe-and-sustainable-aviation-in-Africa-Alignment-of-Policies-Regulations-and-Resources.

(for a free soft copy email:  drpam007@gmail.com)