Safety of the Nigerian Skies

The skies have always been safe until we begin tinkering with natures’ balance without adequate safe guards. The result of conflict between nature and technology was aptly demonstrated when a fully serviceable jet flies into a flock of migrating Canada geese as in the case of Capt. Chelsey Sullenberger and US Airways flight 1549. Similarly, a risk is introduced in an already hazardous environment when you find fatigued pilots at the controls, or underpaid, overworked and/or inexperienced air traffic controllers on long shifts without adequate rest. It is pernicious to expect our air traffic controllers to adequately manage our increasing air traffic without serviceable VHF communication equipment and required air traffic management (ATM) tools. When you consider that the three major causes of aviation accidents are  loss of control (LOC), control flight into terrain (CFIT) and runway events, you’ll expect our air traffic management system to be fully equipped with both short-term and medium-term conflict alerting systems (MTCA, STCA),  minimum safe altitude warning systems(MSAW), as well as approach path monitoring systems (APM), runway status lights systems (RWSL) and airport surveillance detection radars (ASDE-X). This will be a precursor to the attainment of low visibility operations (LVO) as well as to increase traffic this region is expected to witness. Many factors have to be considered in order to ascertain the state of the aviation industry. These include accident rate, fatalities, organisational structures, regulations, supporting infrastructure, safety culture, levels of compliance and a whole lot of other factors.
It may surprise you to know that within a period of just three weeks, from 22 July to 12 August 2012 the UK and the USA experienced at least 84 aircraft accidents with only 15 fatalities. So accidents still happen even in developed economies. However when a high number fatalities is involved, it does attract a lot of public attention. And the public perception is what matters. Historically, the public assumes the USA and the UK  are safe while Nigeria and most of Africa and inherently unsafe. It is this public perception that we have to strive and correct. Not by denying and ignoring our shortcomings but by correcting them. An honest appraisal of the status of our communication, navigation and surveillance (CNS)  and air traffic management services (ATM) by end users should reveal the true state of affairs.

I was privileged to attend the 9th IATA  Air-Traffic Service Incident Analysis Working Group (AIAG) which took place in Johannesburg South Africa on from 8th to 9th March 2012. The feedback for a few countries in sub-Saharan Africa was not very good, Nigeria inclusive.
As a matter of fact Nigeria and about 14 other countries mostly in sub-Saharan Africa are the only places where pilots have to constantly Broadcast their position at least every 20 minutes so that other pilots could know where they are. This inconvenient but necessary measure is mandated because the communication navigation and surveillance equipment and services provided by the air navigation service providers (ANSP) in this countries is deemed to be unreliable. The working group only discussed air-traffic incidents where there was a risk of collision between aircrafts. Nigeria (Kano FIR) experienced 8 occurrences in 2011 that could have resulted in mid-air collisions. These were documented in the form of air safety reports (ASR) and analysed by a teams of experts. A  number of factors responsible for these incidents included lack of coordination, unserviceable equipment, human error, ATM operations, and procedural failures. Other factors are excessive ATC overload, combined sectors control, poor ATC performance requiring further training, non-implementation of the IATA in-flight broadcast procedure (IFBT), inadequate/unserviceable mobile communications, poor crew discipline and error. Perhaps recent reports that foreign airlines are avoiding Nigeria’s airspace may not be far-fetched. At the moment it is a sort of the blame game between NAMA and the rest of the stakeholders, so a survey of the end users of the airspace or a proper investigation will clarify the true state of affairs .

Poor liaison by most Nigerian operators in industry initiatives
At this meeting, it was disappointing that no Nigerian airline operator was represented including our two IATA member airlines; Arik air and Air Nigeria. I had a privilege of having a brief meeting with the head of the Africa and Indian Ocean (AFI)  regional monitoring agency (ARMA ) responsible for collating fleet data as well as monitoring of the performance of the RVSM in Africa.  One of their major concerns was lack of corporation from the Nigerian operators in providing the required height monitoring data from their fleet. This is needed to verify the system operational performance.
NAMA and a lack of adequate emergency response (ER) and search and rescue (SAR) services.
There appears to be very poor co-ordination between the Nigerian airspace management agency (NAMA) and the Nigerian emergency management agency (NEMA) in coordinating both emergency response (ER) and search and rescue (SAR) services. It is obvious that our search and rescue facilities has been put to its paces and it has consistently failed to make the mark. The recent DANA 0992 accident is another proof that we need to take emergency response and search and rescue services seriously. The studies conducted by the NTSB showed that only 27% of fatalities occur as a result of the impact of an accident,  the remaining fatalities occur as a result of other secondary factors which can be avoided by provision of prompt emergency response on the scene of an accident.

The $81M question: Was Nigeria’s investment in TRACON a good idea or should we have invested in more efficient yet cheaper to acquire, operate and maintain future-proof satellite based technology (GNSS, WAAS, ADS-B, ADS-C, etc)?
Most countries are moving away from terrestrial radar and investing in satellite based technology. This was obvious since 2003 when the United States of America revealed their intention to de-commissioned most their 295 civil radar installations by 2018 in line with the “NEXTGEN” objective.  Here is a quote from the FAA NEXTGEN report of March 2012.
“Safety is the FAA’s first priority. The NextGen systems, policies and procedures that we are implementing are designed to ensure that the U.S. air transportation system remains the safest in the world. Satellite-based surveillance improves upon radar by providing controllers with more frequent and more accurate aircraft location information. This information can also be delivered to the cockpit, offering operators of properly equipped aircraft unprecedented traffic awareness.”1
And to cater for instrument landing approach replacement; “The FAA also plans to publish Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) Localizer Performance with Vertical Guidance (LPV) approach procedures for all suitable runways by 2016.”
It is still shocking that officials in NAMA have the myopic audacity to say we’re making progress by paying over $40m for technology that is being phased out  and getting more expensive to maintain because it is no longer in mass production. Talk about NAMA being proactive is an insult to common sense and will only come from someone who is out of touch with reality and industry trends. The ill conceived TRACON was 4 years behind schedule and ATC units are at least 25% understaffed. This does not describe proactivity. A wise and proactive administrator should be able realise the need to modify current plans and strategy based on new and superior information. Countries like Algeria, Botswana, Chad and Congo have started rolling out ADS-B trials why is Nigeria still lagging behind? Granted, the total reader coverage (TRACON) was initiated in 1997 but the contract was not signed until 2003. It was also later reviewed again in late 2003. The ability to integrate ADS-B functionality into the air traffic management (ATM) will provide considerable safety, economic and environmental benefits to the industry. This is generally achieved by facilitating expeditious departures and arrivals as well as direct routings to aircraft. The gains are reduced fuel burn, quicker sector times,  reduced aircraft noise and their attendant environmental impacts.
NASI expects a full public investigation into the NAMA and TRACON saga when the current litany of litigations surrounding the deal is resolved by the courts.

Dialogue with the NCAA
We have had meaningful discussions on certain issues with the NCAA boss. And we’re pleased with the positive response to some of our criticisms. Especially in the area of economic regulation concerning late payment of staff salaries. However, the process wasn’t well thought through as further sanctions including legal action may be required to compel airlines such as Air Nigeria that had consistently refused to pay stuff salaries while grounded. We have also witnessed increased surveillance on airline operations. We shall continue to engage the stakeholders in meaningful discussions to ensure that safety is not only achieved but also maintained. We’re sure more than 50% of the current operators should not be in the airline business. An IOSA certification is not a guarantee of international standards. Arik and Air Nigeria are proof that a safety culture does not exist on a certificate. We are watching to see how the regulator  and the Minister intends to handle the under-performance being exhibited by the operators and service providers.

Aircraft tracking system
We have to commend the NCAA for successfully acquiring an aircraft tracking technology. With this equipment in the system which has the ability to accurately track all aircraft movements within the Nigerian airspace in real time, it will facilitate quick search and rescue (SAR) operation and improve chances of saving lives rather than just salvaging a wreck. I would like to point out that this is a future-proof satellite based system that does not require any surface radar for its operation. So thumps up to the NCAA for that.

Most Nigerian operators are paying lip service to safety, there is no management commitment to the written safety policy objectives

Most Nigerian airline operators and service providers are paying lip service to safety and quality management. A vital part of the safety management system absent in most of our operators is management commitment and responsibility to safety policy and objectives. The second aspect that I find missing among line management personnel is practical risk management. This involves the identification, analysis and elimination or mitigation of the risks that pose a significant threat to the reputation organisation. It has to do with balancing the allocation of resources. The result might be a review of the operating and or maintenance procedures to achieve a segregation of exposure or the building of redundancies to protect against it. The tools used to achieve this are usually regulations, training or technology. Anyone in doubt should compare the public perception of our safety and quality standards with countries like Kenya, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia. There must be ample evidence to show that a safety culture is in place. And that is the challenge for the NCAA to show. If I had a safety culture in place, the NCAA  would have received confidential or anonymous reports from professionals working in Dana about the safety violations before the accident. This will have allowed corrective actions and mitigating measures to correct them and prevented the accident from happening. Obviously people knew they were violations that we’re afraid to come out and say it and did not trust the NCAA enough to tell them about it. The findings of in-house audits carried out by company safety managers should be able to reveal the absence the gaps in the safety chain, as well as the remedial actions required to close this gaps within a specified time frame. An external audit by the regulator should be able to show what the dairies continuous improvement towards safety. And that is the true test whether a safety culture is in place in an organisation or not.

NCAA needs to provide indisputable evidence that there is a genuine commitment to entrench a safety culture in Nigerian aviation
The safety culture does not happen overnight it has got to be top driven and backed by a series of surveys and data correlation processes. A  cursory look at our  various national cultures will reveal that we do have a ‘large power distance culture’ where rich individuals in the society tend to wield some demigod-like status and demand preferential treatment in the sight of the law. This is exhibited in the arrogance and lack of decorum by certain politicians and businessmen including airline entrepreneurs. The general populace however,  are influenced by a strong ‘uncertainty avoidance culture’ and a bias towards collectivism, masculinity and short-term orientation. These attributes unless delicately handled will pose serious hindrances to the evolution of a safety culture within our industry. As a starting point, I strongly recommend that we need to conduct an industrywide safety culture survey. To be closely followed by the implementation of a confidential human factors reporting system that is both anonymous and non-punitive. This will provide the benefit of increased accident and incident reporting. My personal opinion is that, in the evolution safety cultures, Nigeria is in the reactive stage and slowly progressing towards the calculative stage.

If there is no evidence that Diana is culpable then the grounding order must be lifted
According to ICAO annex 13 an accident investigation is a factual exercise to determine the immediate and remote causes of an accident, with a view to making recommendations that will forestall a re-occurrence. Personally I have my doubts with regards to the information from the AIB that the flight data recorder was destroyed in the subsequent fire as a result of the crash. The equipment is designed to  withstand sustained heat at 1100°C for up to 30 minutes. However, if the preliminary report did not indict DANA of any culpability or breach of safety regulations there is no justification in preventing DANA from resuming flight operations.  Unless the AIB has information that the MD -83 type aeroplane is inherently dangerous due to some design feature in which case it should be publicised. Otherwise by grounding DANA for over 3 months without any indictment from the AIB, the NCAA and Federal Ministry of aviation are setting a dangerous precedence that will open them to litigation and has a strong chance destroying the fragile trust currently existing within the industry.

Challenges to Nigeria's burgeoning aviation industry

The future of the Nigeria's aviation industry is strongly dependent on the future of the African industry. It is the fact that Nigeria as a country provides 65% of the aircraft movement in West African sub-region which is more or less representative of the Banjul accord group (BAG) with its headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria. Africa's revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) is set to more than double in the next 20 years; from 250 billion RPK to 720 billion RPK in 2030. Nigeria currently has the second highest RPK coming only second behind South Africa.south Africa taking the lead. However Nigeria is set to become Africa's largest economy by 2018. The Country also hosts West Africa’s regional safety oversight organisation (RSOO) office. On the continental level, Nigeria is gaining prominence so there is an urgent need for more co-operation and consensus building among African States and their carriers. Nigeria should seek strong commercial agreements and mergers with African carriers in order to strengthen the group against external competition. The Yamoussoukro Decision (YD) must be fully implemented as soon as possible for greater consensus building and corporation on a continent-wide level. It will be a major boost to the continent if African carriers and States come together and use the instruments of the African development Bank (ADB) to set up an aircraft leasing company that will enable them take advantage of the Cape town convention of 2005 and modernise the fleet across the continent. It is a major drawback that some member nations are yet to sign the YD. However, all signatories of the Abuja treaty of 12th May 1994 are automatically bound to implement the YD. However, complacency has seen bred a lack lustre  culture to the implementing group objectives. The expeditious implementation of YD is hindered because certain articles in trade agreements currently existing between some African nations and their OECD donors indirectly discourage regional integration. African leaders should realise by now that the only real chance Africa has at sustainable development is regional synergy.

No clearly understood Policy, strategy and poor implementation leading to loss of focus. 
Nigeria’s Aviation industry challenges has to approached from a top-down perspective beginning at the policy level. This naturally feeds into the strategy, and implementation stages. The policy defines how the industry will be administered  and what are the over-arching objectives. The strategy outlines the actions and steps necessary to attain those goals. These will include time-lines with specific goals. The key here is that Nigeria's aviation policy has to be in harmony with the policy thrust of African civil aviation commission (AFCAC) in order to achieve the objective of YD which is regional integration and harnessing of synergies. Policy implementation is the phase where this country has witnessed its greatest failures. Aviation is an industry that relies heavily on technical and innovative skills, making basic education and the ability to adapt to technology indispensable attributes of its workforce. The importance of successful implementation cannot be overemphasised because this is the phase where hypothesis is translated into tangible products or services and ideas are turned into achievements. It is imperative that this phase be transparently deftly executed because it requires balancing the theoretically planned strategy with the exigencies of real life events. For example, it is a fact that the universal primary education (UPE) re-launched by President Shagari in 1982 also was not sustained. This is evidenced by the 32% or 50 million Nigerians aged 15 years and above who cannot read or write. The failure of that educational policy portends long term adverse effect on the  nations economic growth. The effects in aviation can be seen in these ways. First, it inhibits the ability of the industry to meet its capacity building targets by the absence of the requisite skilled and competent personnel. Secondly, reduces the earning power of the general population because of the obvious degraded income of  an illiterate and less productive populace. Finally, The inability of the country to take advantage of the revenue inflow as a result of the mobility of highly skilled migrant workers making remittance to their countries of origin which serves to increase overall GDP.
In view of the above it is obvious that there is a general loss of focus within the industry. Otherwise, there would have been frequent reinforcement of the policy objectives, the strategies being adopted and the level of implementation of the programs and projects that the various agencies and  stakeholders are implementing. Credible safety management system (SMS) must be backed by safety assurance and promotion schemes rolled out across all agencies and replicated by all relevant stakeholders. The various agencies that should be working in synchronism, are rather working at cross purposes. There is the need for the alignment of policies and strategies between the various agencies of government. This should include the Ministry of Science and technology, labour and transport to mention but a few. 

lack of transparency, accountability and proper checks and balances within the system resulting in loss of group synergy and monumental fraud.
The challenges facing the Nigerian aviation industry are indicative of the challenges facing our Federal system of government and it’s institutions; especially in the area of socio-economic development.
Our biggest challenge is the lack of synergy in policy implementation which is exacerbated by a system of governance and administration that lacks of transparency, accountability and proper checks and balances within the system. The result is Policy somersault, gross inefficiencies and prevalence of serious fraud. I believe all the parastatals and agencies of the aviation Ministry have been enmeshed in a culture of perpetual serious fraud. The level of which can only be identified after an open and detailed investigation is carried. It is obvious that these two agencies FAAN and NAMA have have witnessed monumental amounts of fraud in the last 6 years. Bearing in mind that there has been frequent management changes in most agencies, employees and managers who have clean hands in these places have the moral duty call for in-depth investigations.

The lack of Security,  adequate power supply and the rule of law are threats to both sustainable safe operations and foreign direct investment (FDI).
The economic foot print of Nigeria’s aviation industry is marginal considering its obvious potentials.  Primarily because the sectors’ main activities of airlines operation and the supporting ground infrastructure are still in a low levels of development. In 2010, the cumulative contribution of the direct, indirect, induced and catalytic channels of air travel to both employment and gross domestic product (GDP) was approximately 295,000 jobs and N200b respectively. Two major factors responsible for the slow social and economic development of the entire country for the past three decades are lack of adequate electrical power supply and the lack of jurisprudence or respect for the rule of law and order. Recently the country has been experiencing worsening security threats mainly as a result of activities of both internal and external terrorists groups; notably among them is one identified as boko-haram. The current lack of security is becoming of more concern than the first two factors of power supply and the rule of law. Without adequate power supply there is no way the Country can make progress in areas of key infrastructural projects and manufacturing processes. Without jurisprudence and respect for law and order there is no way we can attract foreign investors.
However, without adequate security, there will be no Country or governance. I would like to highlight that these two factors were also raised by Chinese investors to our Okonjo-Iwealla led economic team in February as causes of concern with regards to their planned $3.5 billion investment in Nigeria’s economy. That investment is expected to be channelled into power generation and distribution, agricultural and transport sector for the next two years. Also note that that expected $3.5 billion is not for aviation alone, but for the entire transport sector which will comprise a rail, roads, sea and air transportation.

Industry deficient in skilled and experienced man-power due to
Neglect of training and manpower development
For the past 7 years a major obstacle in Africa's inability to meet its safety oversight  functions is the lack of requisite competent  manpower. It is obvious that for the past few years a lot of training has taken place within both the administration and professional cadre of aviation agencies. 
However it is hoped that the NCAA will strive to retain these personnel by offering realistic prospects for secure and rewarding professional careers in Nigeria. According to the World Bank tertiary enrolment for developing Countries stands at 10% of the population compared to 56% for Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Countries. It is evident that Africa will find it challenging to produce the number of development professionals needed to sustain economic growth in the aviation sector without a serious change in educational and labour policies.
Note that a conservative estimate from Boeing last year dictates that Africa needs to provide and additional 715 pilots and 960 aircraft engineers every year for the next 20 years to be able to man it's aviation sector planned capacity. Nigeria's' population is 18% of Africa's hence we are expected to provide the appropriate 18% of the manpower. This comes to precisely 128 additional pilots and 172 new engineers every year. Failing to meet this target means Africa will have to mitigate the shortfall by employing expatriates. These will eventually repatriated both the acquired skills and revenue  back to their home countries to the detriment of this continent. The problem could have been eliminated if the promised academic upgrade and expansion of the Nigerian College of Aviation technology (NCAT) had been carried out as planned. A recent census of ICAO recognised aviation training institutions in Africa showed that the United Kingdom has more ICAO recognised aviation institutions than the 54 African countries combined.

Brain drain caused by security concerns and poor psychological contracts
The current security concerns experienced in some northern part of the country as result into movement of people  and businesses away from the perceived hot spots like Jos. The psychological contract is a series of unwritten expectations that employees expect from their employer and vice versa. The remuneration (pay) is only a tip of the iceberg when it comes to expectation. Principal among these latent expectations are security and safety, training and development, recognition for the work and efforts invested. Most employment contracts make no provision for loss of license insurance, medical cover, pension, union representation and unbiased conflict resolution processes.  The current proliferation of expatriate staff  experienced within the Nigerian aviation industry leads to disparity of conditions and local staff disaffection. A scenario where there is no employee engagement and group synergy provides the perfect environment for the emergence of latent pathogens that could threaten safety.

Lack of enabling laws to provide a safety net for professionals in safety critical organisations.
Aviation professionals in Nigeria are exposed to excessive commercial pressure without any legal protection. These happens because managers insist on meeting target on time performance, schedule integrity,  achieve cost savings, etc. The end result is safety is compromised for economic benefits.This include pilots, engineers, air traffic controllers, dispatchers, handling agents, ground equipment operators, etc.
Some operational safety issues reported include:

• Engineers are cajoled into signing certificates of release to service when the aircraft obviously unserviceable.

• Dispatchers encouraged to falsify weights in order to carry all commercial payload.

• At traffic controllers required to work:

• without the neccessary serviceable equipment.

• overtime due to low manpower levels.

• Pilots being reprimanded, fined for:

• Safely executing go-arounds from an unstable approach.

• Writing serious defects in the aircraft technical log.

• Refusing to fly an unserviceable aircraft.

• Insisting on taking the legal amount of fuel for flights.

The prebendal culture and the absence of the whistleblower protection policy.
Nigeria needs to evolve a whistleblower policy that insures protection of both the system and the users. This this will serve to reduce the spread of corruption within the system. It would also help in identifying hazards and taking mitigating action before the entire group is compromised. The absence of this feature has left our aviation system constantly being overrun by corruption. Good people within the system who observe anomalies such as unsafe practices or misuse of public funds are left with the difficult choice of speaking out and sacrificing their careers and livelihood or keeping quiet and hoping someone else will do something about it. The result is a system void of transparency and accountability that fosters a contagion of corruption and unethical practices.
Inherent prebendal culture leads to depletion of the much needed manpower. It is unfortunate that with every change in Administration the top level management are usually prematurely retired or fired irrespective of the competency and integrity. This unwarranted high turnover of our top professionals deprives the sector of the much-needed manpower required for capacity building. Some of management staff anticipate this cycle and begin looting the system in preparation for undignified exit.


Poor infrastructure especially lack of adequate aerodrome lighting to support nighttime operations operations.
Lack of proper facilities at airports has led to serious losses by airlines. Aero Contractors claim to have lost about N6 billion as a result of poor infrastructure across the country. Some reports indicate that the combined losses to airlines is in excess of N2 billion as a result of runway 18left at Lagos being unusable at night.  Another aspect that is being neglected is the impact of uneven wear on both runways and the cost manipulation. It is regrettable that agencies like FAAN, NIMET and NAMA that are expected to enhance safe flight service operations are now actively jeopardising safety by not providing adequate infrastructure and facilities.


Lack of commercial simulator facility in the west African region
In a widely circulated publication the NCAA reported that Nigeria airlines spend about $16.3 million every year for pilot recurrent simulator training. Approximately 70% of the continent of this cost is incurred due to the absence of a commercial stimulator facility in Nigeria. Thus necessitating expenditure and loss of productivity while attending visa interviews, payment for the visas, flight tickets, estacode, hotel accommodation and other sundry expenses. You can imagine the cost savings that will accrue to the local industry by the presence of a full flight simulator training facility in Nigeria.

Absence of adequate maintenance repairs and overhaul (MRO) facilities to cater for the various commercial and civil aircraft in operating Nigeria.
Once again another case of policy neglect at the implementation stage. If the National hangar project which was decided in 1977 had been implemented, this problem would be non-existent. In 2009 negotiations had commenced between the Nigeria’s aviation authorities and Lufthansa technik with a view to setting up an MRO in Nigeria. It is unfortunate that nearly 2 years later the idea appears to be a distant reality.  Aero contractors has made substantial investment and has won the necessary approvals to carry out C-checks on the very popular Boeing 737 aircraft. Which incidentally is the dominant commercial jet aeroplane in the Nigerian industry. I see this initiative with Aero contractors as a stopgap and interim measure rather than the final solution. A sensible plan will be to provide a facility that will be able to meet the maintenance needs of the entire West African sub region, seeing that Nigeria provides 65% of the traffic in the West African region


Excessive import duties and tariff on aviation consumables and spare parts
There is no doubt aviation businesses in Nigeria have been subject to a regime of harsh taxes and tariffs. With industry margins averaging 3 to 5% it is inevitable this will erode any chances for profitability. It is strongly recommended that the following incentives be immediately implemented:
 All aviation businesses should be given a five-year tax holiday commencing from next financial year.
This should be accompanied by zero import duties on all airpower parts and consumables.
 Nigerian airlines should be given the license to import and distributed jet A1 to reduce operational cost.

Conclusion and  2 recommendations

The Global industry is facing a tough operating environments cut cost and maximise profits. This year European airlines are expected to declare a loss of $1.1 billion and African airlines a loss of $100 million. With this grim prediction, you can infer British Airways rationale for investing $5 billion in its African portfolio. Historical data indicates that in tough economic conditions currently experienced in Europe, airlines that will survive must have the capacity to absorb losses as well as capture markets from those airlines that will  jettison routes or cease operations. On the hand, Asian airlines should lead global profits at $2 billion this year, while their American counterparts are expected to earn $1.4 billion. Airlines in Latin America and the Middle East are expected to show profits of $400 million each.


Nigerian airlines must consolidate in order to harness the synergies needed to survive the competition.
Nigerian airlines should immediately embark on strategic review of their business models to aid in choice of strategic options. They should seriously consider strategic mergers and acquisitions to facilitate access to intangible assets such as new markets, airport slots, supply chain integration and increased corporate versatility. For the immediate future we need to consolidate our 16 airlines into three or five viable airline groups. Secondly the NCAA needs to close the gaps in their oversight functions especially the safety and economic regulatory aspects. As far as I’m concerned the distress in the airline industry started with their unsustainable loans. Resulting in a spiralling debt profiles, necessitating the intervention by the central bank of Nigeria (CBN) through the asset management company (AMCON) in 2008. Whether it was deliberate or not this bears a similitude to the chapter 11 bankruptcy protection that is offered by the USA to its carriers. At that time we thought Arik  Air was poised to set a new standard in financial prudence but we were shocked that they needed the refinancing option as well. The mistake AMCON and the NCAA did was failing to have the airlines under administrative scrutiny . With hindsight, events in the last 12 months have shown that perhaps only one scheduled airline in the country has a sustainable business plan. Though part of the impediments are external to the business and can be addressed using appropriate government instruments. A plausible option is to give the currently 16 local airlines 90 days to come up with sensible strategic consolidation options that will see the Nigerian aviation industry emerge with between 3 to 5 formidable airlines. Surprisingly they all seem to respond that my suggested strategy  is equivalent to merging a blind man and a lame man together. Of course, it is just what I had in mind! because the only way these two can get somewhere is when the blind man carries the lame man on his shoulder.

The African aviation industry must seek sustainable funding initiatives
Despite late colonel Gaddafi's notoriety he was one man who later in life, believed in Africa's economic and Political independence. After decades of isolation from both the Arab league and the capitalist West he realised even a very rich country needs to develop sensible alliances. It is an record that during regime, Libya was the only country in Africa that never accrued any foreign debts. He became a great champion of the African union and was willing to fund a lot its initiatives. That explains why the declaration of the African Union (AU) was made in 1999 at the town of Sirte in Libya. Gaddafi led the call for one African Central Bank (ACB) which is decidedly based in Abuja and expected to be fully operational in 2025. Libya was willing to fund up to 30% of the African development bank (ACB).
Having just concluded the meeting of the African Council of aviation ministers in Abuja July 2012. The question of funding should also be addressed. Africa (AU) should establish at least one leasing company and take advantage of the Cape Town convention of 2005.  This convention in conjunction with the aircraft protocol addresses the issue of  international interest in mobile equipment. Properly utilised it will provide leverage and access to competitive means of acquiring new equipment for African airlines. Note the Chinese are determined to break the strangle hold of the Bretton-Woods establishment. A monetary union in African is still long way ahead but an African leasing company and spreading our insurance risks to African based underwriters will be a significant strategy to consolidated our financial system.
Sad to say, the AU let Libya down when they were needed the most
And hopefully African development bank will be able to offer competitive low interest loans for the airlines.