Safety of the Nigerian Skies

The skies have always been safe until we begin tinkering with natures’ balance without adequate safe guards. The result of conflict between nature and technology was aptly demonstrated when a fully serviceable jet flies into a flock of migrating Canada geese as in the case of Capt. Chelsey Sullenberger and US Airways flight 1549. Similarly, a risk is introduced in an already hazardous environment when you find fatigued pilots at the controls, or underpaid, overworked and/or inexperienced air traffic controllers on long shifts without adequate rest. It is pernicious to expect our air traffic controllers to adequately manage our increasing air traffic without serviceable VHF communication equipment and required air traffic management (ATM) tools. When you consider that the three major causes of aviation accidents are  loss of control (LOC), control flight into terrain (CFIT) and runway events, you’ll expect our air traffic management system to be fully equipped with both short-term and medium-term conflict alerting systems (MTCA, STCA),  minimum safe altitude warning systems(MSAW), as well as approach path monitoring systems (APM), runway status lights systems (RWSL) and airport surveillance detection radars (ASDE-X). This will be a precursor to the attainment of low visibility operations (LVO) as well as to increase traffic this region is expected to witness. Many factors have to be considered in order to ascertain the state of the aviation industry. These include accident rate, fatalities, organisational structures, regulations, supporting infrastructure, safety culture, levels of compliance and a whole lot of other factors.
It may surprise you to know that within a period of just three weeks, from 22 July to 12 August 2012 the UK and the USA experienced at least 84 aircraft accidents with only 15 fatalities. So accidents still happen even in developed economies. However when a high number fatalities is involved, it does attract a lot of public attention. And the public perception is what matters. Historically, the public assumes the USA and the UK  are safe while Nigeria and most of Africa and inherently unsafe. It is this public perception that we have to strive and correct. Not by denying and ignoring our shortcomings but by correcting them. An honest appraisal of the status of our communication, navigation and surveillance (CNS)  and air traffic management services (ATM) by end users should reveal the true state of affairs.

I was privileged to attend the 9th IATA  Air-Traffic Service Incident Analysis Working Group (AIAG) which took place in Johannesburg South Africa on from 8th to 9th March 2012. The feedback for a few countries in sub-Saharan Africa was not very good, Nigeria inclusive.
As a matter of fact Nigeria and about 14 other countries mostly in sub-Saharan Africa are the only places where pilots have to constantly Broadcast their position at least every 20 minutes so that other pilots could know where they are. This inconvenient but necessary measure is mandated because the communication navigation and surveillance equipment and services provided by the air navigation service providers (ANSP) in this countries is deemed to be unreliable. The working group only discussed air-traffic incidents where there was a risk of collision between aircrafts. Nigeria (Kano FIR) experienced 8 occurrences in 2011 that could have resulted in mid-air collisions. These were documented in the form of air safety reports (ASR) and analysed by a teams of experts. A  number of factors responsible for these incidents included lack of coordination, unserviceable equipment, human error, ATM operations, and procedural failures. Other factors are excessive ATC overload, combined sectors control, poor ATC performance requiring further training, non-implementation of the IATA in-flight broadcast procedure (IFBT), inadequate/unserviceable mobile communications, poor crew discipline and error. Perhaps recent reports that foreign airlines are avoiding Nigeria’s airspace may not be far-fetched. At the moment it is a sort of the blame game between NAMA and the rest of the stakeholders, so a survey of the end users of the airspace or a proper investigation will clarify the true state of affairs .

Poor liaison by most Nigerian operators in industry initiatives
At this meeting, it was disappointing that no Nigerian airline operator was represented including our two IATA member airlines; Arik air and Air Nigeria. I had a privilege of having a brief meeting with the head of the Africa and Indian Ocean (AFI)  regional monitoring agency (ARMA ) responsible for collating fleet data as well as monitoring of the performance of the RVSM in Africa.  One of their major concerns was lack of corporation from the Nigerian operators in providing the required height monitoring data from their fleet. This is needed to verify the system operational performance.
NAMA and a lack of adequate emergency response (ER) and search and rescue (SAR) services.
There appears to be very poor co-ordination between the Nigerian airspace management agency (NAMA) and the Nigerian emergency management agency (NEMA) in coordinating both emergency response (ER) and search and rescue (SAR) services. It is obvious that our search and rescue facilities has been put to its paces and it has consistently failed to make the mark. The recent DANA 0992 accident is another proof that we need to take emergency response and search and rescue services seriously. The studies conducted by the NTSB showed that only 27% of fatalities occur as a result of the impact of an accident,  the remaining fatalities occur as a result of other secondary factors which can be avoided by provision of prompt emergency response on the scene of an accident.

The $81M question: Was Nigeria’s investment in TRACON a good idea or should we have invested in more efficient yet cheaper to acquire, operate and maintain future-proof satellite based technology (GNSS, WAAS, ADS-B, ADS-C, etc)?
Most countries are moving away from terrestrial radar and investing in satellite based technology. This was obvious since 2003 when the United States of America revealed their intention to de-commissioned most their 295 civil radar installations by 2018 in line with the “NEXTGEN” objective.  Here is a quote from the FAA NEXTGEN report of March 2012.
“Safety is the FAA’s first priority. The NextGen systems, policies and procedures that we are implementing are designed to ensure that the U.S. air transportation system remains the safest in the world. Satellite-based surveillance improves upon radar by providing controllers with more frequent and more accurate aircraft location information. This information can also be delivered to the cockpit, offering operators of properly equipped aircraft unprecedented traffic awareness.”1
And to cater for instrument landing approach replacement; “The FAA also plans to publish Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) Localizer Performance with Vertical Guidance (LPV) approach procedures for all suitable runways by 2016.”
It is still shocking that officials in NAMA have the myopic audacity to say we’re making progress by paying over $40m for technology that is being phased out  and getting more expensive to maintain because it is no longer in mass production. Talk about NAMA being proactive is an insult to common sense and will only come from someone who is out of touch with reality and industry trends. The ill conceived TRACON was 4 years behind schedule and ATC units are at least 25% understaffed. This does not describe proactivity. A wise and proactive administrator should be able realise the need to modify current plans and strategy based on new and superior information. Countries like Algeria, Botswana, Chad and Congo have started rolling out ADS-B trials why is Nigeria still lagging behind? Granted, the total reader coverage (TRACON) was initiated in 1997 but the contract was not signed until 2003. It was also later reviewed again in late 2003. The ability to integrate ADS-B functionality into the air traffic management (ATM) will provide considerable safety, economic and environmental benefits to the industry. This is generally achieved by facilitating expeditious departures and arrivals as well as direct routings to aircraft. The gains are reduced fuel burn, quicker sector times,  reduced aircraft noise and their attendant environmental impacts.
NASI expects a full public investigation into the NAMA and TRACON saga when the current litany of litigations surrounding the deal is resolved by the courts.

Dialogue with the NCAA
We have had meaningful discussions on certain issues with the NCAA boss. And we’re pleased with the positive response to some of our criticisms. Especially in the area of economic regulation concerning late payment of staff salaries. However, the process wasn’t well thought through as further sanctions including legal action may be required to compel airlines such as Air Nigeria that had consistently refused to pay stuff salaries while grounded. We have also witnessed increased surveillance on airline operations. We shall continue to engage the stakeholders in meaningful discussions to ensure that safety is not only achieved but also maintained. We’re sure more than 50% of the current operators should not be in the airline business. An IOSA certification is not a guarantee of international standards. Arik and Air Nigeria are proof that a safety culture does not exist on a certificate. We are watching to see how the regulator  and the Minister intends to handle the under-performance being exhibited by the operators and service providers.

Aircraft tracking system
We have to commend the NCAA for successfully acquiring an aircraft tracking technology. With this equipment in the system which has the ability to accurately track all aircraft movements within the Nigerian airspace in real time, it will facilitate quick search and rescue (SAR) operation and improve chances of saving lives rather than just salvaging a wreck. I would like to point out that this is a future-proof satellite based system that does not require any surface radar for its operation. So thumps up to the NCAA for that.

Most Nigerian operators are paying lip service to safety, there is no management commitment to the written safety policy objectives

Most Nigerian airline operators and service providers are paying lip service to safety and quality management. A vital part of the safety management system absent in most of our operators is management commitment and responsibility to safety policy and objectives. The second aspect that I find missing among line management personnel is practical risk management. This involves the identification, analysis and elimination or mitigation of the risks that pose a significant threat to the reputation organisation. It has to do with balancing the allocation of resources. The result might be a review of the operating and or maintenance procedures to achieve a segregation of exposure or the building of redundancies to protect against it. The tools used to achieve this are usually regulations, training or technology. Anyone in doubt should compare the public perception of our safety and quality standards with countries like Kenya, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia. There must be ample evidence to show that a safety culture is in place. And that is the challenge for the NCAA to show. If I had a safety culture in place, the NCAA  would have received confidential or anonymous reports from professionals working in Dana about the safety violations before the accident. This will have allowed corrective actions and mitigating measures to correct them and prevented the accident from happening. Obviously people knew they were violations that we’re afraid to come out and say it and did not trust the NCAA enough to tell them about it. The findings of in-house audits carried out by company safety managers should be able to reveal the absence the gaps in the safety chain, as well as the remedial actions required to close this gaps within a specified time frame. An external audit by the regulator should be able to show what the dairies continuous improvement towards safety. And that is the true test whether a safety culture is in place in an organisation or not.

NCAA needs to provide indisputable evidence that there is a genuine commitment to entrench a safety culture in Nigerian aviation
The safety culture does not happen overnight it has got to be top driven and backed by a series of surveys and data correlation processes. A  cursory look at our  various national cultures will reveal that we do have a ‘large power distance culture’ where rich individuals in the society tend to wield some demigod-like status and demand preferential treatment in the sight of the law. This is exhibited in the arrogance and lack of decorum by certain politicians and businessmen including airline entrepreneurs. The general populace however,  are influenced by a strong ‘uncertainty avoidance culture’ and a bias towards collectivism, masculinity and short-term orientation. These attributes unless delicately handled will pose serious hindrances to the evolution of a safety culture within our industry. As a starting point, I strongly recommend that we need to conduct an industrywide safety culture survey. To be closely followed by the implementation of a confidential human factors reporting system that is both anonymous and non-punitive. This will provide the benefit of increased accident and incident reporting. My personal opinion is that, in the evolution safety cultures, Nigeria is in the reactive stage and slowly progressing towards the calculative stage.

If there is no evidence that Diana is culpable then the grounding order must be lifted
According to ICAO annex 13 an accident investigation is a factual exercise to determine the immediate and remote causes of an accident, with a view to making recommendations that will forestall a re-occurrence. Personally I have my doubts with regards to the information from the AIB that the flight data recorder was destroyed in the subsequent fire as a result of the crash. The equipment is designed to  withstand sustained heat at 1100°C for up to 30 minutes. However, if the preliminary report did not indict DANA of any culpability or breach of safety regulations there is no justification in preventing DANA from resuming flight operations.  Unless the AIB has information that the MD -83 type aeroplane is inherently dangerous due to some design feature in which case it should be publicised. Otherwise by grounding DANA for over 3 months without any indictment from the AIB, the NCAA and Federal Ministry of aviation are setting a dangerous precedence that will open them to litigation and has a strong chance destroying the fragile trust currently existing within the industry.